From drought plaguing producers in the Plains and South to planters finally getting several uninterrupted days to roll, farmers across the country are focused on growing this year’s crop and weathering the extremes. But with the midterm elections now just six months away, a new survey is offering insight into how farmers and ranchers are feeling politically and financially heading into campaign season.
A Farm Journal poll commissioned by Amato Advisors surveyed nearly 1,000 farmers and ranchers across the U.S., with a heavy focus on swing states. The results point to mounting frustration over rising costs, economic uncertainty and what many producers describe as a growing disconnect with Washington.
“I don’t know if I would say surprise. I think they’re concerning, and I think there are some real alarm bells going off across the countryside,” says Mike Amato of Amato Advisors.
Farmers Say Washington Doesn’t Understand Agriculture Today
One of the most striking findings in the survey was the overwhelming number of farmers who believe elected officials do not understand the realities facing agriculture today.
“I think it also stood out to me that, I think in some ways farmers feel a little not heard in Washington, DC, and this is not a political statement. I think, it’s from both parties,” Amato says. “73% of farmers said that their elected officials don’t understand what it’s like to be a farmer or what’s happening on the farm. Uh and that and that to me was a strong signal that um there’s a disconnect between what’s really happening on the land and what’s happening in Washington DC.”
The poll found nearly three out of four farmers surveyed said elected officials do not understand the realities they face. Only 19% responded that elected officials understood somewhat well, while just under 4% said they felt very well understood.
Global Conflict Adds to Cost Concerns
The survey also examined how geopolitical tensions are affecting producers’ outlooks. When asked how the conflict in Iran could impact their operations, farmers overwhelmingly pointed to concerns over rising fuel and fertilizer costs.
“94% said that it would affect fuel or fertilizer prices. And about 80% said it would effect both. So this is nearly all farmers being hit by this conflict,” Amato says.
When asked about the biggest challenges facing their operations today, 78% of respondents identified machinery and input costs as top concerns.
Tyson Redpath, chairman of the Russell Group, a Washington-area government relations firm, says many of those concerns are tied directly to trade policy and tariffs.
“In the concern about input costs and machinery cost, this cost price squeeze that we hear so much about, I don’t wonder Tyne if a little bit of that, maybe a lot of that in terms of concerns over input costs and machinery costs are tied to tariffs, are tied to tariff policy in our trade policy currently,” Redpath says.
Affordability Becomes the Central Political Issue
Redpath says affordability will likely dominate campaign messaging heading into the midterms.
“Affordability, one way or the other, is the defining buzzword of this campaign,” Redpath says. “The administration, the president, his team, started the year on that note. And so the opposition is all too eager to use that and to call into question that.”
He adds inflation continues to weigh heavily on both rural and urban voters.
“It’s really been the central issue since we pumped $8 trillion into the economy during COVID and post-COVID,” Redpath says. “And when you pump $8 trillion into an economy, as we saw over the last four and a half years, inflation is not transient. It’s not transitory. It’s sticky and it’s stubborn.”
A Mixed Financial Picture in Agriculture
The survey found mixed sentiment regarding farm finances. Nearly 43% of respondents described their farm’s financial condition over the past 12 months as good. However, when asked to compare their current condition to three years ago, 34% said things were somewhat worse, while only 20% said somewhat better.
Callie Eideberg, principal at the Vogel Group, says those results are not surprising given the economic pressures producers have faced.
“It doesn’t surprise me because there have been quite a number of policy decisions over the last year and a half that have put pressure on both cost in raising those costs and the prices that folks are paying for everyday goods,” Eideberg says.
“So if you’re a farmer who is trying to produce a crop, every single line item in your budget is getting more expensive,” she says. “But you’re also seeing the price that you’re getting paid for those crops decrease. And that is not a winning equation.”
Redpath says the survey results also reflect growing divisions within the ag economy itself.
“The thing that stands out foremost is that to quote Charles Dickens, it is somewhat of a tale of two cities,” Redpath says. “It’s the best of times if you’re sort of on the livestock side and it’s not the greatest of times for row crops, though improving.”
He points to improving grain prices but notes overall sentiment remains divided.
“We have seen prices for corn, for wheat especially, and for beans continue to escalate. So moving in a positive direction,” he says. “But I think that’s reflected in just sort of, you know, the 50-50 split that you see between, frankly, the forecast and sentiment for farmers.”
Will Farmers Change Their Vote?
Despite frustrations over policy and economics, Redpath says the survey showed relatively little appetite among producers to dramatically change voting behavior.
“Only 7%, and I go from the bottom of the polling results up, right? Cause it’s easy to say 60% this or 70% this, but take a look at it’s sort of the bottom piece,” Redpath says. “Only seven percent, seven percent single digits said that they were prepared today to vote for someone else.”
The survey found 61% of respondents said they planned to vote for the same party they supported in the last election, while 17% said they were reconsidering switching parties or voting independent.
Eideberg notes that historically, midterm elections often challenge the party in power.
“Usually the midterm election right after the presidential election does not go well for the incumbent presidential party,” Eideberg says. “And in this case, we have what we call a Republican trifecta, where the Republicans hold the White House, the House, and the Senate.”
“So it’s very, very difficult for any incumbent right now, especially an incumbent in the majority, to blame somebody else because all of the policies that farmers, consumers, and all Americans are facing right now are a direct result of policy decisions made by the current leadership in Washington,” she says.
Why E15 Is Gaining Political Importance
Eideberg says one issue gaining traction among rural voters is year-round E15 approval. especially in key swing states.
“E15 has really risen in importance,” Eideberg says. “At least in the DC circles and outside in the heartland too, is being seen as a way to save farmers from bankruptcy at this point.”
She says weakening export markets have increased the urgency around finding additional domestic demand.
“We need, farmers need a secondary market to sell into,” Eideberg says. “And so E15 has really risen in importance.”
But the bigger theme emerging from the poll released this week specifically dissecting the ag vote may be not only the dwindling trust in government among those in agriculture, but also the overwhelming number of farmers who say those in Washington simply do not understand what is happening on farms and ranches across the country.
When asked whether that frustration is actually being heard in Washington, Tyson Redpath says he believes policymakers are paying attention, but structural challenges are making rural voices harder to hear. But for Redpath, the notion of farmers not being heard is something that’s known in Washington.
“I think so,” Redpath says. “As we’re talking about redistricting and the brushfire that has swept the country in terms of trying to redistrict state maps, even this close before an election, you had a landmark ruling on the Voting Rights Act out of the Supreme Court the week before last. You had the Virginia Supreme Court overrule their redistricting effort late last week.”
“Why do I bring all that up?” he says. “The typical congressional district today represents 728,000 people. It was the reapportionment process was never supposed to lead to a House of Representatives where each congressional district represents 720,000. What that means is the voice of the farmer, the voice of rural America gets lost when you have congressional districts.”
For Redpath, that raises concerns that farmers and ranchers are increasingly being pushed farther from the center of the political conversation, despite agriculture’s critical role in the U.S. economy.
“We are victims of our own success,” Redpath says. “We are the most incredibly productive system of agriculture and farming that the world has ever known. You combine that with the fact that a congressional district now represents over 700,000 people, and it’s just really hard for Ag’s voice to be heard. More importantly, hard for AG’s voice to be understood.”
Agriculture’s Voice in Washington
That growing disconnect mirrors what political scientist Nicholas Jacobs says has become a decades-long erosion of trust, particularly in rural America.
“Trust in government, trust in what government says, the data that it puts out, the data that informs its policies, and since the 1970s it has just plummeted nationwide in this country,” Jacobs says.
“As fast as it’s fallen nationwide, it has hit rock bottom in rural areas,” he says.
For Jacobs, rebuilding that trust may ultimately be one of the country’s greatest political challenges.
“When I think about our political problems, I sort of end and begin with this question of trust, how we work together and how we solve problems together,” Jacobs says. “You can be conservative, you can be progressive, libertarian, but if you don’t have trust in the people around you, you ain’t getting anything done.”
The Growing Divide Between Rural and Urban America
The growing political importance of rural America has also drawn attention from academics studying voting trends.
Nicholas Jacobs, a professor at Colby College and co-author of The Rural Voter: The Politics of Place and the Disuniting of America, says the divide between rural and urban voters has been building for decades.
“We went all the way back until the early 1820s to understand whether or not this divide between cities and rural spaces is historically unprecedented,” Jacobs says. “You don’t have to buy the book. I’ll just tell you, it is.”
Jacobs says rural voters often prioritize local concerns differently than urban voters.
“Those issues tend to be very different than the issues that are talked about in national media,” Jacobs says. “People are thinking about their local community. I think people are thinking about what’s going on with the local school. Is my town government working? Are small businesses able to succeed?”
He says one of the biggest distinctions is how rural voters define progress.
“What we really need to ask them is, is your community better off than it was four years ago?” Jacobs says. “That is one of the biggest differences that we find between rural voters and urban voters is a different orientation to the political world.”
“What matters is the place, not always just the person,” he says.
Jacobs also notes that while fewer rural Americans work directly in agriculture today, farming still holds enormous cultural influence in rural communities.
“While a small and smaller still number of rural individuals are directly employed in agricultural industries, it’s like these industries are symbolically powerful and culturally meaningful,” Jacobs says.
Seismic Shift Unlikely in Midterms
He cautions against assuming any one issue or candidate will suddenly reshape rural voting patterns.
“This partisan realignment or this growing gap between rural and urban areas predates 2016,” Jacobs says. “It is decades in the making. And I think I’m not ever confident that a single issue or even a single candidate is really going to bring about a seismic shift in what has been a decades long transformation.”
Still, the broader message emerging from the survey may be less about partisan politics and more about trust.
“Trust in government, trust in what government says, the data that it puts out, the data that informs its policies, and since the 1970s it has just plummeted nationwide in this country,” Jacobs says.
“As fast as it’s fallen nationwide, it has hit rock bottom in rural areas,” he says.
For Jacobs, rebuilding that trust may ultimately be one of the country’s greatest political challenges.
“When I think about our political problems, I sort of end and begin with this question of trust, how we work together and how we solve problems together,” Jacobs says. “You can be conservative, you can be progressive, libertarian, but if you don’t have trust in the people around you, you ain’t getting anything done.”
