USDA Reports
Three potentially market-moving events will test the resilience of the spring grain rally, offering a clearer direction for the new crop year’s market fundamentals.
Following a major stakeholder meeting, USDA is boosting survey sample sizes and moving data-focused offices out of D.C. to rebuild farmer trust and improve the accuracy of its agricultural reports.
Chip Nellinger with Blue Reef Agri-Marketing says, “USDA did rearrange some of the soybean demand estimates with crush raised 35 million bu. while exports were lowered the same amount.”
In Texas, for example, more than half of the winter wheat is rated poor to very poor. USDA Meteorologist Brad Rippey says the state recently endured its fourth-driest stretch from September to February in the last 131 years.
DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing says with the reports out of the way the grain market has gone back to trading Iran war headlines and following the crude oil market
Arlan Suderman with StoneX some of the support in the grains Tuesday came from money flow but lower wheat and soybean acreage than anticipated also added to the buying interest.
Corn falls to 95.3M acres (-3%) while soybeans rise to 84.7M (+4%). Wheat hits a record low 43.8M acres (-3%) and cotton climbs to 9.64M (+4%).
U.S. ending stocks remain unchanged month-over-month while USDA adjusts global production estimates.
USDA is urging farmers to respond to 2026 acreage surveys as skepticism grows over recent corn acreage revisions. Officials say stronger participation is key to maintaining the accuracy and credibility of crop reports.
Confidence in USDA reports is wavering after recent acreage misses, leaving many producers and retailers skeptical. While experts call it the “best data available,” transparency is needed to restore industry trust.
Matt Bennett with AgMarket.Net says it was a money flow day as grains were influenced by the selloff in crude oil and the precious metal markets, plus the higher dollar.
With the lack of rebuilding the strong cattle market could be extended another year.
USDA’s annual report reveals the smallest total herd since 1951, with beef cow numbers falling to 27.6 million despite a slight uptick in replacement heifers.
Sam Hudson with Corn Belt Marketing says the grain markets all hit technical resistance on the charts and may have seen profit taking.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says he was concerned the trade might view a slightly bearish Cattle on Feed report placement number as a reason to sell but the market was more focused on the higher cash trade Friday.
Jerry Gulke, president of The Gulke Group, says the report provided some valuable lessons about marketing.
Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors says with corn and soybean prices plunging at the beginning of the week in response to the bearish USDA report, the lower price levels stimulated end user buying.
Lance Honig, chair of the Agricultural Statistics Board and a NASS official, addressed farmer concerns in a Farm Journal interview explaining the major January data revisions that caused corn prices to sink on Monday.
Brian Grete with Commstock Investments says the corn market is still trying to digest the shock of USDA’s January reports. March corn futures came within striking distance of the Aug. 12 low at $4.10.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says strong cash has been supportive of the cattle futures and he expects a higher week in the fed market again this week. Grains are still digesting USDA’s bearish reports.
Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX says the move surprised him even though their customer survey’s during the season had yield at 186 bu.
All eyes were on final yields and production, and USDA delivered with record corn numbers. The agency left soybean yields basically unchanged from the November report but did raise overall production.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says many farmers believe that corn and soybean yields need to be cut but he will be watching the ending stocks for direction.
Darren Frye with Water Street Solutions says the trade guesses are fairly conservative with not many changes expected. However, that is not the history of the January reports. So could there be a surprise?
Live and feeder cattle futures were lower early Friday but Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says it didn’t take long for the markets to firm up supported by the cash market.
The January USDA reports have been historically a huge market mover and a great deal of the focus will be on final yields and production.
Rich Nelson with Allendale, Inc. says there is a general lack of news for the grain markets so some of the pressure is coming from end of the quarter and end of the year positioning by traders.