The 2026 winter wheat crop is off to a rocky start as dry conditions and harsh weather take a toll on production across the Southern Plains. According to USDA’s first Crop Progress report of the season, just 35% of the winter wheat crop is rated in good to excellent condition. It is a sharp decline from the 48% reported at this time last year.
While a third of the crop is rated fair, the situation is particularly dire in Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado and Nebraska following a combination of challenging winter conditions and persistent dry weather. “Things are looking pretty rough, as we get into the heart of this early growing season for 2026,” says USDA Meteorologist Brad Rippey.
Texas Facing Extreme Moisture Deficits
In Texas, the situation is especially critical, with more than half of the winter wheat rated poor to very poor. Rippey says the state recently endured its fourth-driest stretch from September to February in the last 131 years.
Cody Pruser, a farmer near Winters, Texas, says the recent moisture hasn’t been enough to save much of the crop. “We got some rain recently, but it’s all too late, wheat’s burned up and it’s not going to make a whole lot, it’ll be below average in most places,” Pruser says. His area received about 1.5 inches of rain last week — the first significant moisture since December.
However, the timing was far from ideal. “We’ve missed the February to March rains. We’re getting them toward the end of March, the first of April, but it seems like it’s a little too late. We had decent moisture when we planted, but not much after that,” he explains.
Drought Conditions Broaden Across the Plains
Data from the latest U.S. Drought Monitor confirms the severity of the situation. More than 95% of the Southern Plains are experiencing some level of drought or abnormal dryness. In Texas, Oklahoma and Colorado, that figure reaches nearly 100%.
Despite the moisture deficit, Pruser remains cautiously optimistic he will harvest a better crop than last year, though he notes disease pressure is now a growing concern. Pruser says the biggest concern for his wheat this year is damage from High Plains virus on wheat. He predicts about 10% of his crop is impacted, which means quite a few of his acres will be unable to be harvested.
“It’s really the main concern we have with our wheat going on right now. [There is] no way to control it, nothing really to do about it,” he says.
Rippey’s Weather Outlook
Rippey says the subsoil moisture in Kansas means the state could see a turnaround from drought. The 1" to 2" of rain expected to hit the southern great plains and lower Midwest could make a big difference. “Maybe for some of the earlier wheat on the Southern Plains, we can still turn the corner and bring back some yield potential,” he says.
However, Rippey isn’t sure Western acres, or those in the central Great Plains will be able to come back from dry conditions. “Wheat’s already heading out in the far South. When you look at the numbers coming in out of Oklahoma and Texas, there’s only so much recovery at this point you’re going to have,” he says.
