Recent rains across parts of the Plains, South and Northern Rockies are providing much-needed relief to drought-stricken areas, but USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says producers shouldn’t expect a quick recovery. Fresh data released Monday shows the U.S. just experienced its driest August–May stretch since 1976–77, underscoring how deeply entrenched the nation’s moisture deficit remains even as the weather pattern begins to show signs of improvement.
Looking at the shorter window, Rippey says conditions are even more striking: the August-through-April period ranked as the third-driest in more than 130 years of records. With deficits this large still in place across key production areas, he says some of the hardest-hit regions may ultimately need an additional 10 to 20 inches of rainfall, and months of favorable weather, to fully break free from severe drought conditions.
That reality stands in contrast to the recent uptick in precipitation, including widespread rains across Montana, parts of the Plains and more than a foot of rainfall in sections of the Gulf Coast region over the past month. Together, those events point to a weather pattern that is beginning to shift after a prolonged dry stretch.
“We have started to turn the corner in recent weeks. There is no doubt about that,” Rippey says. “Some of the driest areas of the country across the Great Plains and the South have picked up meaningful precipitation. That’s really important for summer crops.”
Still, he cautions that the recent improvement comes after an extraordinary period of dryness that built a significant moisture debt across much of the country.
“This drought is a long time coming,” Rippey says. “If you look at the entire period from August 2025 to April 2026, that nine-month period ending April 2026 was the third driest over the last 130-plus years for the nation as a whole. And for some areas in the hardest-hit drought areas, it was the driest on record.”
Drought Recovery Won’t Happen Overnight
While the recent rains are helping improve soil moisture and supporting summer crops, Rippey says digging out of such a deep drought hole will require much more than a few timely storms.
“It would take 10 to 20 inches of rain to break the drought. Even now, even with what we’ve seen in the last couple of weeks, that’s a year’s worth of precipitation for some of the High Plains areas,” he says. “So it is not going to be an overnight process. Yes, the rain is good, but it will take considerable time, months in fact, to see meaningful recovery, even if we continue to see normal or above-normal rainfall this summer.”
That reality is especially evident in forage production.
“For pastures and range, it’s complicated, but obviously we’ve gone through that first cutting for many areas without much to cut,” Rippey says. “Now we will see some revival of the pastures and rangelands, but it takes time. And the longer these areas have been in drought, the longer it’s going to take for full recovery.”
He says some of the most severely affected regions could still be dealing with lingering impacts well into next year.
“We may go well through 2026 without too much recovery in some of these hardest-hit High Plains drought areas.”
Montana Sees Significant Moisture
Among the biggest beneficiaries of the recent weather pattern change has been Montana.
Over the past week, much of the state received between 1 and 3 inches of rainfall, while portions of central and western Montana recorded as much as 6 inches. Some locations saw record-breaking rainfall totals.
The moisture is helping stabilize conditions, but Rippey says the recent rains must be viewed in the context of the enormous precipitation deficits that have accumulated over time.
Too Much Rain in Some Areas
While many producers are celebrating the return of rain, others are dealing with the opposite problem.
Southern Mississippi, for example, received more than two feet of rainfall during May.
“They need the taps to turn off at this point,” Rippey says.
Even so, drought remains widespread nationally.
“There’s still plenty of the country that needs more rain,” he says. “Over the last two months, we have seen more than 60% of the lower 48 states in drought. Even with the rain that we’ve seen recently, that continues now. So there’s plenty of areas that need more rain to break the drought.”
June Outlook: Dryness Emerging in the North
Looking ahead, Rippey says one of the most notable weather developments has been the reversal of conditions between the northern and southern parts of the country.
“One thing that’s interesting in recent weeks, we have kind of flipped the drought situation on its head,” he says. “Obviously the driest areas of the South have gotten rain. We started to dry out a little bit now across the North where it had been rather wet. I think that trend generally will continue.”
While some rain has recently moved into portions of the Upper Midwest, Rippey says producers should watch closely for developing dryness.
“We are seeing a little bit of a break and getting some rain in the Upper Midwest now, but that’s one area we’ll have to watch. Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, warm, dry weather could continue to deplete topsoil moisture.”
State topsoil moisture reports are beginning to reflect those concerns. Areas reporting short to very short topsoil moisture are increasing across Nebraska and the Dakotas, with pockets also developing farther east.
“Parts of Wisconsin had its driest May on record,” Rippey says. “So that is definitely one area to watch for emerging dryness and drought. That is a concern for the month of June.”
Despite those concerns, Rippey says most of the Corn Belt remains in relatively good shape.
“We have only roughly a quarter of the U.S. corn and soybean production areas in drought at this point,” he says. “A lot of that’s in the far West as you get into southern South Dakota and Nebraska, for example. So we’re still looking pretty good in the Midwest. And I think generally speaking, that will continue through the month of June.”
Western U.S. Facing New Moisture Challenges
The West is another region Rippey is monitoring closely as summer heat intensifies.
“We’ve been kind of living on borrowed time there,” he says. “The snow melted early, and as we get into this pre-monsoon season, the West is going to start running out of moisture and that will be a concern.”
As temperatures rise, irrigation demand is expected to increase.
“Irrigation demands are going to go up. Heat is going to build. That’s one area I’m watching as we get into early summer for running out of moisture.”
El Niño Not Here Yet, But It’s Close
Another major weather story producers are watching is the development of El Niño.
Rippey says the climate pattern has not officially arrived, but that declaration could come soon.
“We are not into El Niño yet. It is imminent,” he says. “I think either this month or next month there will be an official declaration from the National Weather Service that says we are in the beginning stages of El Niño.”
For the United States, Rippey expects two primary impacts this summer.
The first could be a quieter Atlantic hurricane season.
“Number one would be a suppressed Atlantic hurricane season,” he says. “So we may actually see some dry conditions along the Gulf and the southern Atlantic related to lack of tropical activity.”
The second potential impact is an enhanced Southwest monsoon.
“Once we get into the monsoon season, July and beyond, it could be quite robust and active,” Rippey says. “That could provide drought relief starting in the Southwest, eventually expanding to the north from there. That could help with the western drought situation.”
While the strongest impacts of El Niño may not be felt until later this year, Rippey says all indications point toward a potentially strong event.
