Ag Economists
Monthly Monitor

A vetted group of agricultural economists provide a monthly read on the U.S. ag economy, tracked over time, providing a gauge on important industry drivers.

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July 2026 · Latest report

July Report at a Glance

The July panel shows improving short-term sentiment, but little relief on the cost side. The Ag Economy Index rebounded to 61 from June's 50, while nearly seven in 10 economists expect 2027 input prices to remain flat or elevated and the same share expect operating-loan rates to move higher. As producers look toward 2027, debt repayment and credit stress are emerging as the indicators to watch.

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Outlook

"Better sentiment, unmoved costs."

Fifty-six percent say the ag economy is better off than a month ago, but input and borrowing costs remain stubborn. The panel sees some improvement in conditions without a meaningful easing of the pressure facing 2027 budgets.

Ag Economy Index

the July reading, up 11 points from June

The index rebounded from 50 on a much stronger month-over-month read.

2027 Input Costs

69%

expect input prices to stay flat or elevated

Another 19% expect prices to keep climbing, while none foresee significant relief.

Farmland Values

13%

say a farmland correction is beginning

A 56% majority expects values to plateau without declining, while another 31% expect current values to hold.

Debt stress is the indicator to watch. Economists are increasingly focused on loan delinquencies, repayment behavior and farm operating debt as the clearest signals of whether financial pressure is building.

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Insights & analysis

News Coverage

Ag Economy

No Input or Interest Rate Relief in Sight as Ag Economists Flag Rising Farm Debt Stress

Sentiment in the July Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor is improving and no one sees the downturn deepening, but interest rates, elevated input costs and corn’s shaky price outlook still cloud the path to 2027.

August 07, 2026 12:39 PM

Tyne Morgan

Ag Economy

Half of Ag Economists Say Crop Profitability Might Still Be 3 to 5 Years Away

Farm Journal’s June Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows a weaker ag economy versus a year ago, but more than 80% expect consistent or better conditions over the next 12 months despite ongoing margin pressure.

July 02, 2026 11:57 AM

Tyne Morgan

Chart showing economists' response to the question "How severe could the economic impact of the New World Screwworm be?"

News

75% of Economists Forecast Substantial Economic Hit if Screwworm Outbreak Spreads

The June Farm Journal Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor reveals a majority of ag economists support reopening the Mexican border and rank weather and input costs as more immediate threats to the U.S. cattle herd.

June 30, 2026 04:02 PM

Angie Stump Denton

Ag Economy

The Hardest Crop to Grow In 2026 Is A Profit Margin

U.S. farmers and ag economists remain concerned by mounting global competition and the reliability of recent trade agreements. However, some economists say emerging market shifts could create opportunities later this year.

June 02, 2026 06:26 PM

Rhonda Brooks

May AEMM_Need Significant Restructuring.jpg

Ag Economy

40% of Ag Economists Say Many Farms May Need Major Restructuring to Survive

The May Farm Journal Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor reveals growing concern over farm profitability, rising debt costs and long-term financial stress, with economists saying many operations may need significant restructuring to remain viable.

June 02, 2026 01:33 PM

Tyne Morgan

Report Archive

View every Ag Economists Monthly Monitor published since January 2025.

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About the Ag Economist Monthly Monitor

The Ag Economists Monthly Monitor is administered by Farm Journal and published on AgWeb. Each survey is administered to a vetted list of agricultural economists from across the United States.

Three of those questions repeat every survey, so changes can be tracked over time: current conditions vs. the prior month, current conditions vs. a year ago and the panel's outlook for the next twelve months. The trend chart plots those three categories. The composite sentiment index is a rebase of the four response shares to a single 0–100 number.

Responses are anonymous. Economists give the unvarnished view they cannot always offer with their name attached, and the panel composition is broad enough to cover crop, livestock, policy and ag finance perspectives. Reporting and analysis are produced by the AgWeb editorial team and overviews are aired on AgDay, AgriTalk and U.S. Farm Report.

In the News