Ag Economists
Monthly Monitor

A vetted group of agricultural economists provide a monthly read on the U.S. ag economy, tracked over time, providing a gauge on important industry drivers.

September 2026 · Latest report

September Report at a Glance

Economists are advising growers to hedge their 2027 fertilizer bets — 44% recommend pricing a portion now and leaving the rest open, and only 11% expect spring wholesale prices to come down. Near-term sentiment held up, but the 12-month outlook slipped below neutral for the first time since April 2025, pulling the Ag Economy Index to 53 from July's 61.

View the September Report →
Outlook
"Hedge the fertilizer bill, brace for costly inputs."
58% call the ag economy better off than a month ago — the strongest month-over-month read since January 2025 — but 32% expect it to be worse in 12 months against 26% who expect it to be better.
Ag Economy Index
53
the September reading, down 8 points from July
Fourth straight reading above 50 and up from 41 a year ago. The year-over-year read hit 55, its highest since January 2025.
12-month outlook
47
the forward-looking index, down from 63 in July
The first below-neutral reading since April 2025, after holding above 55 since September 2025.
2027 fertilizer
44%
recommend pricing a portion of 2027 needs now
Another 28% would lock in most or all needs this fall; 11% would hold cash for spring.
Input and energy costs top the rural ballot — 84% say they matter most to voters this cycle, while 67% call EIA's $4.40 diesel forecast for 2027 too optimistic.


Insights & analysis

News Coverage

With global supply, production costs and geopolitics all in flux, corn and soybean growers face a tough call on how much of their 2027 crop inputs to price this fall.
Sentiment in the July Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor is improving and no one sees the downturn deepening, but interest rates, elevated input costs and corn’s shaky price outlook still cloud the path to 2027.
Farm Journal’s June Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows a weaker ag economy versus a year ago, but more than 80% expect consistent or better conditions over the next 12 months despite ongoing margin pressure.
The June Farm Journal Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor reveals a majority of ag economists support reopening the Mexican border and rank weather and input costs as more immediate threats to the U.S. cattle herd.
U.S. farmers and ag economists remain concerned by mounting global competition and the reliability of recent trade agreements. However, some economists say emerging market shifts could create opportunities later this year.


Report Archive

View every Ag Economists Monthly Monitor published since January 2025.



About the Ag Economist Monthly Monitor

The Ag Economists Monthly Monitor is administered by Farm Journal and published on AgWeb. Each survey is administered to a vetted list of agricultural economists from across the United States.

Three of those questions repeat every survey, so changes can be tracked over time: current conditions vs. the prior month, current conditions vs. a year ago and the panel's outlook for the next twelve months. The trend chart plots those three categories. The composite sentiment index is a rebase of the four response shares to a single 0–100 number.

Responses are anonymous. Economists give the unvarnished view they cannot always offer with their name attached, and the panel composition is broad enough to cover crop, livestock, policy and ag finance perspectives. Reporting and analysis are produced by the AgWeb editorial team and overviews are aired on AgDay, AgriTalk and U.S. Farm Report.

In the News

Media Coverage

Findings from the Ag Economists Monthly Monitor covered by national newsrooms, farm-country radio, and agricultural policy outlets.

National CoverageThe New York Times
War With Iran Puts Further Strain on America's Pessimistic FarmersMarch 12, 2026 · Business
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