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Farm Journal · April 2026 report

Geopolitical reset
Input price pressure

The April Ag Economists Monthly Monitor found current conditions worse than last year but positive 12 months out. The Iran conflict has reset fertilizer and energy assumptions. Economists now describe what's happening as a structural shift rather than a typical cyclical low.

Download the full report → About the Ag Economist Monthly Monitor

Key Takeaways from the April Panel

Softening, but stabilizing — and the rules have changed.

April's panel reads a near-term economy that has bottomed but not rebounded. Slightly more than 60% of the ag economists surveyed say current conditions are worse versus a year ago, but the 12-month outlook flipped: 44% of respondents now expect a rebound, the strongest forward read in four months.

What's new this month is the structural framing. Three of every five economists say what's happening is not a normal cycle. Rather, it is a permanent reshaping of the industry based on trade realignment, technology and policy dependence.

Three numbers at a glance
50% Farm economy worse off vs. last month44% say unchanged from last month
63% Farm economy worse off vs. a year ago25% say much worse off
44% Expect better in 12 monthsFirst up-tick in four months
Open-ended panel question

Two factors driving agriculture's next 12 months

Factor #1

Geopolitical volatility & input cost pressures

  • Iran conflict impact on energy and fertilizer prices, pinching margins with high input costs and low commodity prices.
  • Breakeven costs above market prices.
  • Heightened uncertainty in global markets for both ag exports and on the inputs side, particularly for fuel and fertilizer.
  • Uncertainty around availability and cost of certain crop inputs.
Factor #2

Market dynamics & revenue stability

  • Loss of soybean market in China due to Brazilian competition and tariff policy. Several economists believe this is structural change that won't reverse with one good harvest.
  • Continued strength in the livestock sector due to relatively high prices and financial returns for cow/calf producers.
  • More government payments anticipated for 2026.
  • Price of corn and soybeans recovering, driven by higher basis.
Monthly tracking · same questions, every month

The state of the U.S. ag economy

Conditions vs. Last Month

50% net worse · 44% say unchanged from last month

Somewhat better off
6%
Unchanged
44%
Somewhat worse off
38%
Much worse off
12%
n = 16Apr 2026
Conditions vs. last year

63% net worse · 25% say much worse

Somewhat better off
12%
Unchanged
25%
Somewhat worse off
38%
Much worse off
25%
n = 16Apr 2026
Outlook · 12 months ahead

44% expect a rebound · Positive forward read

Somewhat better off
44%
Unchanged
25%
Somewhat worse off
31%
Much worse off
0%
n = 16Apr 2026
April Assessment

Structural shift, or cyclical phase?

60% say structural shift
Why structural

Trade & global competition. Trade is no longer following "normal" patterns due to shifting alliances and aggressive competition from Brazil and others.

Technological transformation. AI and robotics are reshaping how farms operate — from the field to the office — in ways the panel views as a one-way change.

Policy & risk management. Growing concern the industry is moving toward permanent reliance on federal support, which may stifle market efficiency.

40% say cyclical phase
Why cyclical

Boom-and-bust pattern. The primary counter-argument: Agriculture is defined by cycles, and the current slump is simply the latest iteration of a familiar pattern.

Short-term volatility, not permanent. Current geopolitical and trade issues are read as temporary disruptions rather than a permanent reshaping of the industry's economics.

April Assessment

Will fertilizer & crop protection cuts impact 2026 yields?

50% say yields at risk
Economic pressure & budget constraints

Elevated prices are forcing producers — sometimes at the direction of lenders — to maintain fixed budgets, resulting in lower application rates per acre to offset high costs and tight cash flows.

"I've heard from producers that their lenders are telling them to make the budget work. Without increasing budgets for fertilizer, at today's elevated prices, they'll just have less fertilizer and apply slightly lesser amounts per acre."
Threat to physical supplies

Limited physical supply of fertilizer is expected to restrict usage and may lead to a reduction in other inputs, such as fungicides, as producers struggle to secure necessary products.

50% say yield-neutral
Yield protection & inelastic demand

Producers prioritize yield stability over cost savings. Instead of deep cuts, they focus on strategic "trimming" through precision tech or reducing total acreage so the remaining acres are fully supported.

"Fertilizer demand is very inelastic because the short-term and long-term marginal costs of significantly cutting fertilizer and crop protection chemistry are too great. Most will trim around the edges with better soil testing, variable-rate and product choices, but avoid deep cuts."
Large-scale procurement mitigation

Larger operations mitigate supply-disruption risk by securing physical inventory and locking in pricing well in advance of the planting season.

April Assessment

When cash flows get tight, what else gets cut from the 2026 farm budget?

01

Machinery & equipment deferment

The most-cited area. Producers are choosing to delay new equipment purchases, focusing on repairs and the used machinery market to avoid large capital outlays.

"Equipment — this is one item producers have some control over and we'll definitely see larger equipment purchases deferred."
02

Capital expenditures & infrastructure

Long-term investments in buildings and grain storage are on pause. CapEx items are seen as non-essential in a low-profitability scenario relative to immediate operating needs.

"Farm machinery replacement capital expenditures are likely to be delayed if possible in a low profitability scenario year."
03

Land, rent & fixed costs

Focus on lowering fixed costs per bushel. Push back against cash rent growth and seek innovative ways to reduce land and labor expenses to protect ROI.

"Our farm continues to prioritize the fixed costs per bushel/per acre, not the variable costs. We continue to look for ways to lower our land, machinery and labor costs through innovative solutions."
April Assessment

Will Congress write a 2026 support payment?

69% expect a payment
Election-year dynamics

The most-named reason: "It's an election year." Close midterm congressional elections coming up in Fall 2026 plus the unintended consequences of the Iran conflict are seen as reason enough for Congressional action.

Geopolitical & economic triggers

If there is a larger supplemental bill for the U.S. economy related to higher energy prices, panelists expect a portion will be dedicated to direct payments for agricultural producers.

"There is widespread support for such assistance, including from key members of Congress in an election year. However, there are also many roadblocks — this is a 55-45 proposition, not a 90-10."
31% say no payment
Budgetary constraints & competing priorities

Too many other legislative and political issues — military funding and social programs — will drown out farm financial support. The panelist concern: "I don't see an obvious pot of money."

Existing support & political infeasibility

Some panelists point to strength in prices and upcoming large payments from 2026 commodity programs and crop insurance. Others note "a lot of push back from the opposite side of the aisle."

April Assessment

Where does the panel see Fed Funds by end of 2026?

A coin-flip on cuts, with a clear bias toward "no movement."

Half the panel expects the federal funds rate unchanged by end of 2026. A quarter expect it higher than today. Only 25% expect any cuts at all, and just 6% see a 50 bp cut.

Higher than today
25%
Unchanged
50%
25 basis points lower
19%
50 basis points lower
6%
16 respondents · question added Jan 2026
April Assessment

What's not being talked about, but should be

"
Snow water equivalent for the 8 river basins originating in Colorado is only about 20% of historic norms. Lake Powell and Lake Mead are already low. We're headed toward hard conversations about the extent to which water is used for agriculture or continued development in the Southwest.
Western water
"
Removing some barriers to E-15 use can have very different implications depending on how RVOs and other provisions are adjusted. A gain for ethanol use could be a loss for biomass-based diesel if RVOs are not adjusted.
Biofuel policy intricacy
"
Where do alternative financing options — including at the retailer level — fit into the broad ag balance sheet? As farmers take on higher costs, more transparency from these lenders would be helpful to adequately measure risk and repayment capacity across the Heartland.
Alternative lending transparency
"
The divergence in farmer outcomes. There are farmers still making money — the ones not are the smallest and least efficient, heavily indebted and/or aggressive farmers that didn't time the cycle well.
Divergence in farmer outcomes
"
World economic impact of Persian Gulf. Too much focus on US impacts.
Persian Gulf, world view
"
Corn growers specifically are growing more frustrated with 'programmed' or 'regular' increases in seed costs. Many expect 'more help' from deals on seed.
Seed cost frustration
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