Ag Economists
Monthly Monitor

A vetted group of agricultural economists provide a monthly read on the U.S. ag economy, tracked over time, providing a gauge on important industry drivers.

July 2026 · Latest report

July Report at a Glance

The July panel shows improving short-term sentiment, but little relief on the cost side. The Ag Economy Index rebounded to 61 from June's 50, while nearly seven in 10 economists expect 2027 input prices to remain flat or elevated and the same share expect operating-loan rates to move higher. As producers look toward 2027, debt repayment and credit stress are emerging as the indicators to watch.

View the July Report →
Outlook
"Better sentiment, unmoved costs."
Fifty-six percent say the ag economy is better off than a month ago, but input and borrowing costs remain stubborn. The panel sees some improvement in conditions without a meaningful easing of the pressure facing 2027 budgets.
Ag Economy Index
61
the July reading, up 11 points from June
The index rebounded from 50 on a much stronger month-over-month read.
2027 Input Costs
69%
expect input prices to stay flat or elevated
Another 19% expect prices to keep climbing, while none foresee significant relief.
Farmland Values
13%
say a farmland correction is beginning
A 56% majority expects values to plateau without declining, while another 31% expect current values to hold.
Debt stress is the indicator to watch. Economists are increasingly focused on loan delinquencies, repayment behavior and farm operating debt as the clearest signals of whether financial pressure is building.


Insights & analysis

News Coverage

Rising input costs and geopolitical tensions drive growing pessimism among ag economists, though views differ on how the industry is being reshaped, according to the latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor.
Shrinking equity, rising nitrogen costs and continued global upheaval signal a reckoning for corn growers and a shift to soybeans — especially if higher biomass-based blending diesel mandates come through.
Confidence in USDA reports is wavering after recent acreage misses, leaving many producers and retailers skeptical. While experts call it the “best data available,” transparency is needed to restore industry trust.
The January Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows high input costs, weak prices, policy uncertainty and eroding trust in data have pushed many producers from planning for profitability to fighting for survival.
As fertilizer prices emerge as a top threat to profitability, analysts highlight structural supply issues and global trade shifts that leave little room for price relief despite growing domestic frustration.




About the Ag Economist Monthly Monitor

The Ag Economists Monthly Monitor is administered by Farm Journal and published on AgWeb. Each survey is administered to a vetted list of agricultural economists from across the United States.

Three of those questions repeat every survey, so changes can be tracked over time: current conditions vs. the prior month, current conditions vs. a year ago and the panel's outlook for the next twelve months. The trend chart plots those three categories. The composite sentiment index is a rebase of the four response shares to a single 0–100 number.

Responses are anonymous. Economists give the unvarnished view they cannot always offer with their name attached, and the panel composition is broad enough to cover crop, livestock, policy and ag finance perspectives. Reporting and analysis are produced by the AgWeb editorial team and overviews are aired on AgDay, AgriTalk and U.S. Farm Report.

In the News

Media Coverage

Findings from the Ag Economists Monthly Monitor covered by national newsrooms, farm-country radio, and agricultural policy outlets.

National CoverageThe New York Times
War With Iran Puts Further Strain on America's Pessimistic FarmersMarch 12, 2026 · Business
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