Ag Economists
Monthly Monitor

A vetted group of agricultural economists provide a monthly read on the U.S. ag economy, tracked over time, providing a gauge on important industry drivers.

June 2026 · Latest report

June Report at a Glance

The June panel reads as a holding pattern with a hard floor. Not one economist expects crop agriculture to reach broadly profitable margins within 12 months, and half say it will take three to five years. The Ag Economy Index slipped to 50 — down from 61 in May — as a new threat, New World screwworm, moved onto the cattle radar.

View the June Report →
Outlook
"A holding pattern — with no quick exit."
Not one economist expects crop agriculture to return to broadly profitable margins within 12 months. Equal shares call conditions better and worse than a month ago, while 63% still see the economy worse than a year ago.
Ag Economy Index
50
the June reading, down 11 points from May
Slipped from 61 as the year-over-year read fell sharply.
Road back to profit
50%
say profitable margins are 3 to 5 years away
Just 19% expect a return within 1–2 years; none within 12 months.
2026 Acreage
60%
say producers planted too many corn & soybean acres
Of ~180 million acres; the rest call it "about right" — none said too few.
Half the panel expects a moderate hit to the cattle industry if New World screwworm spreads — and two-thirds would reopen the Mexican cattle border only with enhanced protocols.


Insights & analysis

News Coverage

Shrinking equity, rising nitrogen costs and continued global upheaval signal a reckoning for corn growers and a shift to soybeans — especially if higher biomass-based blending diesel mandates come through.
Confidence in USDA reports is wavering after recent acreage misses, leaving many producers and retailers skeptical. While experts call it the “best data available,” transparency is needed to restore industry trust.
The January Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows high input costs, weak prices, policy uncertainty and eroding trust in data have pushed many producers from planning for profitability to fighting for survival.
As fertilizer prices emerge as a top threat to profitability, analysts highlight structural supply issues and global trade shifts that leave little room for price relief despite growing domestic frustration.
The December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows the farm economy will likely stay strained into 2026. As crops face tight margins, biofuels policy — especially E15 and biomass-based diesel — could influence recovery.




About the Ag Economist Monthly Monitor

The Ag Economists Monthly Monitor is administered by Farm Journal and published on AgWeb. Each survey is administered to a vetted list of agricultural economists from across the United States.

Three of those questions repeat every survey, so changes can be tracked over time: current conditions vs. the prior month, current conditions vs. a year ago and the panel's outlook for the next twelve months. The trend chart plots those three categories. The composite sentiment index is a rebase of the four response shares to a single 0–100 number.

Responses are anonymous. Economists give the unvarnished view they cannot always offer with their name attached, and the panel composition is broad enough to cover crop, livestock, policy and ag finance perspectives. Reporting and analysis are produced by the AgWeb editorial team and overviews are aired on AgDay, AgriTalk and U.S. Farm Report.

In the News

Media Coverage

Findings from the Ag Economists Monthly Monitor covered by national newsrooms, farm-country radio, and agricultural policy outlets.

National CoverageThe New York Times
War With Iran Puts Further Strain on America's Pessimistic FarmersMarch 12, 2026 · Business
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