USDA Reports
Live and feeder cattle futures made new highs for the move Monday morning after a strong close Friday and higher weekly closes. However, the big catalyst is the bullish USDA Cattle on Feed Report data according to Rich Nelson of Allendale, Inc.
Jon Scheve discusses what is impacting bean prices right now and provides the detail and rationale of a recent trade he did that sold 100% of his soybeans.
As farmers look ahead to 2026, grain markets are sending mixed signals based on record corn exports, large supplies, federal payments and ongoing China trade uncertainty.
Jon Scheve discusses what is impacting corn prices right now and how the different USDA categories are tracked and estimated.
Jon Scheve discusses the USDA report and what will be impacting soybean prices moving forward.
Jon Scheve discusses the highlights of the latest USDA report and what to expect moving forward.
The biggest surprise came from the agency cutting corn yield less than a bushel and loweing soybean exports by 50 million bushels.
Details are minimal so it’s not clear how there will be enough staff to provide the Milk Production, Crop Production, Cattle on Feed and WASDE reports with many still furloughed.
The impact of disease and dry conditions are becoming increasingly evident as combines roll. More than 70% of farmers report steady or lower yields in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska and South Dakota.
Dan Basse, Ag Resource Company, says corn stocks were 207 million bu. above USDA’s projected ending stocks which was bearish for the market. Soybeans also made new lows for the move despite a slightly friendly report.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says live and feeder cattle futures are sharply higher on Monday as news came late Sunday that New World Screwworm (NWS) had been detected 70 miles from the U.S. Mexican border. in an 8-month-old calf from a transported herd.
Jon Scheve discusses how realistic the USDA’s demand estimates are across the different categories and how that could impact prices.
“I’ve had conversations with lawmakers on the hill, counterparts in the white house and across the cabinet. We are putting together options from A to Z, so when the President decides it’s time, we can step in,” she says.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek, says the last time placements and markets were this low was in 2015, which may be signaling heifer retention is starting to take place.
Allison Thompson with The Money Farm says corn rallied on Tuesday as the market does not believe USDA’s 186.7 bu. per acre yield estimate especially with some disappointing early yield reports.
Jon Scheve with Scheve Grain says corn and soybeans were seeing a technical bounce Tuesday with corn getting some extra help from early yield reports which are showing lower production than a year ago due to disease pressure, especially Southern Rust.
Ted Seifried with Zaner Ag Hedge says after 10-cent gains on Friday the corn market saw some profit taking but also report hangover. The September WASDE was bearish for the corn market and traders had the weekend to finally let that soak in.
Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says live and feeder cattle futures are higher early Monday but after a second week of lower weekly closes, he’s not sure if the market can retest the highs.
Jon Scheve discusses early yield reports he is receiving from farmers throughout the US to determine what the market may expect moving forward.
Chip Nellinger with Blue Reef Agri-Marketing says corn rallied on Friday in reaction to USDA’s 2.1 bu. per acre yield cut to 186.7 bu. cut he thinks there are bigger cuts yet to come.
Market analysts says the September WASDE did not fully account for the disease pressure and dry finish in the East in both the corn and soybean crop.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says live and feeder cattle futures are higher again on Friday morning with the third day of recovery after Tuesday’s melt down. They need to close above Thursday’s highs to have a shot at retesting the record highs.
Garrett Toay with AgTraderTalk says while he thinks the corn and soybean crops are getting smaller he’s not sure if it will be reflected in the September WASDE.
Mike Minor of Professional Ag Marketing says last year USDA raised yield .5 bu. in the September report and left soybean yield unchanged, despite dry conditions to finish the crop.
Darren Frye with Water Street Solutions says grains saw technical selling pressure ahead of the WASDE. The agency doesn’t normally make huge changes in the September report and the market may be more worried about demand than supply.
Craig Turner with StoneX says corn and soybeans drifted early Wednesday ahead of the September WASDE as the market tries to determine how much USDA will lower yield.
Allison Thompson with The Money Farm says grains were quietly mixed early Tuesday positioning ahead of the September WASDE. She expects USDA to modestly cut corn and soybean yields but they could also cut demand.
Dave Chatterton with Strategic Farm Marketing says corn and soybeans saw a technical bounce and buying after holding chart support.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says the uptrend line on the cattle charts is also starting to be violated but that isn’t the only thing he’s watching for a signal of a bigger correction.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says live and feeder cattle futures gapped lower on the opening after a human case of New World screwworm (NWS) was announced over the weekend.