Market Commentary for 11/14/25
On Friday, the USDA released their November report.
The main takeaway is that the USDA expects a big crop with a 186 bushel per acre yield.However, the market remains skeptical and seems to be trading a yield around 182 - 183.The market is acting like it doesn’t want to be fooled like last year, when the USDA reported a massive 3.8-bushel yield drop in January.
Considering this year’s disease issues in the western corn belt, the market’s cautious approach makes sense.However, the surprise stocks increase in the September 30th report suggests that last year’s final yield decrease in the January report was probably too much.And that could also mean the market’s belief of a big yield drop this January might not happen.
Feed & Residual
On Friday, the USDA made changes to the 2024 crop’s feed & residual estimate to account for the increase in stocks from the September 30th report.They decreased the demand in this category by 183 million bushels, which is a 5% decrease in usage from 2023.However, the USDA left the upcoming year’s feed & residual projection 5% higher than 2 years ago and about 10% higher than last year, despite the animals on feed changing less than 1% in each year.
I think this indicates the USDA adjusted last year’s final yield using the residual number in the feed & residual category.With about 83 million corn acres harvested last year, that equates to a 2.2 bushel per acre yield increase, or a final yield closer to 181.5 last year instead of the 179.3 from the January report.I suspect if market participants believed last year’s yields were higher than previously reported, they would be more open to this year’s yield being higher too.
It’s probably not the feed demand that is changing in the reports.Most likely the USDA may be using the residual number as another form of carryout to “make the calculations work” when information isn’t easily accessible. Since it’s impossible to know exactly how many bushels go into feed across the country in any given year, this makes sense.The USDA has a very difficult job, and this year it may be even harder.
Will The Yield Be Significantly Lower Than 186 This Year?
Based upon the reports and yield checks I’ve done throughout the US, I don’t expect much of a drop in January’s final yield.Last year’s 3.8-bushel drop was huge and likely looking back incorrect.Realistically, the final stocks from the September report suggest it should have been only a 1.6-bushel yield drop last January.
If the market would now only expect a 1.6-bushel decrease in January’s report it wouldn’t necessarily be bullish to prices because the carryout is already over 2.15 billion bushels.A 1.6-bushel yield drop would only reduce carryout to 2 billion, a far cry from the 1.5 billion bushels carryout estimate last year that caused a nearly $1 per bushel rally.
Maybe the National Yield Potential Was Higher this Year
This year’s weather throughout the corn belt was mostly really good.Obviously, the disease pressure was concerning, but that may have prevented the crop from being 7 bushels per acre higher than the current 186 USDA estimate.
A national yield of 193 was not inconceivable before disease pressure became widespread.It would have only been 6% above trendline, which has been seen before.In 2009, the yield was 6.5% above trendline, and in 2004 it was 10% above trendline.Even as recent as 2014, 2016, and 2017 yields were at least 4.3% or more above trendline.At 4.3% above trendline this year, the yield would be 188.8, which the USDA is currently saying is not there.
I suggest every producer look at their historical farm averages, ideally in graph form.While the high and low years may be more extreme on any one farm versus the national crop, there is an upward trend in yields.I have yet to meet a farmer who says their yields have trended down over a 10-year time frame.Even fringe areas of the US are rivalling areas in the middle of the corn belt this year.I had a report of an 80-day corn variety harvested near the Canadian border that produced 210 bushels per acre which is nearly 60 bushels per acre above normal.
It’s important to remember, each farmer is improving their yields over time, so we should assume the national yield will continue to go up over time as well.
Something To Keep in Mind
US farmers never really had an opportunity to sell their 2025 corn crop at profit before harvest.So, this means a lot of corn is unsold.Now, with all the reports of widespread disease issues on social media, and remembering last year’s $1 market rally after harvest, it seems unlikely many will sell any time soon.Instead, I believe many will cling to the hope of a surprise repeat like last year.Could a big yield drop happen again?Absolutely, but there’s a good chance this year’s yield could be better than expected.
For questions—or to receive marketing content like this directly—connect with Jon at jon@schevegrain.com or schevegrain.com.
Want to read more by Jon Scheve?
A Drop In Soybean Yields Could Tighten Stocks And Support Prices Into Winter
If The National Yield Is Too High, Is Demand Also Overestimated?
Early Harvest Yields Are Inclusive. The Northern Corn Crop Seems Promising, But Concerns Remain In The South
The Market Hasn’t Given Farmers A Chance To Sell At Profitable Levels
Corn Struggles But Soybeans Look Like They Have Potential
