Market Commentary for 9/12/25
The USDA’s September Supply and Demand report made only minor adjustments. Planted corn acreage was raised slightly while yield estimates were trimmed. Higher export projections offset the additional bushels, leaving carryout nearly unchanged from last month.
The market responded by trading higher, likely because many traders think the yield estimate is still too high, given the widespread disease pressure and some late season dryness throughout the US.Yield estimates will remain relatively uncertain for another month until harvest results become more available, and the USDA provides updated numbers in next month’s report.
Early Yield Results
Early harvest results I’m seeing seem inconclusive.Some farmers along the Nebraska / Kansas line are reporting yields 5%-10% above normal.However, other farmers only a few miles away say yields are 5%-10% lower than average, especially when fungicide wasn’t applied.
Other farmers are telling me their yields, on fields that were treated for disease, will likely produce far less than they expected only a month ago.I suspect these kinds of reports are tripping up market participants.At first, this statement sounds like the yields will be really bad.However, I then asked these farmers what they thought their yield would be compared to normal years.Most farmers said up until a month ago growing conditions were great and they were expecting a record yield.However, now they suspect it may only be slightly above average.Very few farmers who treated for disease that I spoke with are expecting below average yields.
Reports along the Iowa / Minnesota state line from silage harvesters indicate very good yields, with some fields potentially 20% above normal.Reports from the Ohio silage crop indicate corn that was planted in April is producing well above average too.However, those same farmers indicated to me that the corn planted in late May may have reduced yields due to the dry late August weather.
National Yield Picture
Weather throughout the growing season in corn producing areas did not experience much dry weather until late August.Throughout July, only 9% of the corn belt experienced drought conditions.By the first week of August, that area had dropped to 3%.That is much lower than the 30% and 50% of the corn belt experiencing drought conditions during the same time period in 2021 and 2022.
July is the most crucial time for corn plant development, so timely rains during this time period are critical.Comparing 2025 to 2024, there was also a lot more rain in July and early August this year compared to last year.While the last half of August was drier this year than the same period a year ago, I don’t expect that will impact corn production nearly as much as it could hurt the soybean yield.
As the map below shows, about half of the US corn crop is grown north of I-80, and the weather there this year has been nearly ideal and could be a record in many places.
Yield concerns south of I-80 may come from areas with disease pressure but should likely be confined to the western corn belt.Also, the late season dry weather in the eastern corn belt could impact yields there too, but it might have happened late enough so yields may not be impacted much.
Bottomline:
Many farmers had ideal weather conditions until mid-August.Then in the last 30 days, the southern half of the corn belt began experiencing dry weather and disease.It’s now uncertain how much this will actually impact yields.
However, July weather impacts corn yields much more than August weather.Plus, many farmers may be pessimistic, thinking a month ago they were getting record yields and now they may only get slightly better than normal yields.Nevertheless, even average or just slightly better than average is still a good outcome.If the entire corn belt experiences this then final yield could come in higher than many believe.
For questions—or to receive marketing content like this directly—connect with Jon at jon@schevegrain.com or schevegrain.com.
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