Market Commentary for 12/19/26
Since reaching a 17-month high on November 18th, soybeans have been in a sharp decline. Prices have fallen in 16 of the last 23 trading sessions and are now roughly $1.20 per bushel lower than a month ago.
The chart below shows the last 46 trading days.Interestingly, the first 23 days had only 7 down days, while the second 23 days had only 7 up days.
Prices are still a little higher than 46 days ago when the rally started, but below values when the trade deal was announced in late October.
Will Soybean Prices Rally Again?
It could be difficult for US beans to sustain demand if South American beans are cheaper.Once Brazil’s harvest starts in late January, there will likely be an uphill battle for several months.
Exports
As this chart shows, export pace for US beans has been terrible.
While attention has been focused on the potential for Chinese demand, broader global demand was largely overlooked by some traders. As prices moved above $11, US soybeans became uncompetitive in the global market. The recent pullback has brought US beans closer to competitor pricing, but further downside potential still remains as US beans are still higher than South American product.
Brazil’s January weather now becomes the focus.If precipitation is limited over Mato Grosso in early January or southern Brazil in late January, then bean prices could rally quickly.Currently, weather forecasts look for normal precipitation though.
Market Action – Soybean Futures Sale
After the announcement of a possible trade deal with China on October 27th, futures were higher and trading $10.80. I set a target order to sell January beans at $11.20 futures.I picked this price because:
- It was close to the average US farmer’s breakeven price
- It was the highest value on the January contract since July 2024
- I knew any value above $11 at the time was not competitive against South American suppliers
- I expected irrational exuberance in soybeans and thought the market would trade up to at least $11.20 due to the trade deal.
On November 3rd my order was hit, and I sold 100% of my crop using futures at that time, as this chart shows.
Note, I only set the futures price.I haven’t set the basis or established when and where I will be delivering my cash soybeans.
Did You Regret Selling Everything When Prices Went Higher?
I didn’t regret it.In the days leading up to my sale, I was actually concerned I had set my goals too high.There were many reports that South American beans could be sold to China for what was equivalent to only $10.50 futures in the US.I thought I might have missed the best prices of the year and the chance to not lose any money on this crop this year.
Since I planted the soybean crop, there was never an opportunity to sell above the cost of production.With very little of my 2025 corn crop sold, and none of my 2026 corn or bean crop, it seemed very possible that I wouldn’t be able to sell any crop above the average farmer’s breakeven point this year.I wanted to reduce my risk on at least 1 of 4 crops I have to market in the next year.
I was also concerned that with rice, cotton, and wheat prices below breakeven values too, playing defense this next year may be the best strategy.
There was also a very small window where I could have beaten my price by anything significant.Of the 21 days values were higher than my sale point, only 8 closed higher than 10 cents above my sale.
Bottomline
I’m happy with my decision and price goal.And I still hope prices rally because I have some 2025 corn left to price and all of my 2026 beans and corn.
For questions—or to receive marketing content like this directly—connect with Jon at jon@schevegrain.com or schevegrain.com.
Want to read more by Jon Scheve?
Corn’s Invisible Supply Problem
Why U.S. Beans Can’t Compete Above $11—And What It Might Mean Next
Why This Year’s Corn Yield Might Be Higher Than Anyone Wants To Admit
A Drop In Soybean Yields Could Tighten Stocks And Support Prices Into WinterIf The National Yield Is Too High, Is Demand Also Overestimated?
