USDA’s September Cattle on Feed Report continues to show historically tight supplies but may also be indicating some signs of heifer retention in the U.S. cattle herd.
On Feed Numbers Down 1%
Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.1 million head on September 1, 2025. The inventory was 1% below September 1, 2024.
This was right in line with trade expectations.
State by State On Feed
The state breakouts show on feed totals in Texas at 91% of a year ago, Oklahoma at 95%, Kansas at 103%, with Iowa and Nebraska both at 105%.
Placements 10% Below a Year Ago
Placements in feedlots during August totaled 1.78 million head, 10% below 2024. Net placements were 1.73 million head. This was a percent lower than expectations.
During August, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 lb. were 355,000 head, 600-699 lb. were 265,000 head, 700-799 lb. were 390,000 head, 800-899 lb. were 420,000 head, 900-999 lb. were 260,000 head, and 1,000 lb. and greater were 90,000 head.
State by State Placements
The state by state placements continued to show the impact of the closure of the Southern border to Mexican feeder cattle imports due to New World screwworm (NWS).
Texas placements were at 82% of a year ago, Oklahoma at 98%, Kansas at 89%, while Nebraska was at 96% and Iowa was at 87%.
Marketings Down 14%
Marketings of fed cattle during August totaled 1.57 million head, 14% below 2024. Marketings were the lowest for
August since the series began in 1996.
Other disappearance totaled 51,000 head during August, 6% below 2024.
Is Heifer Retention Starting?
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek, says the placements number was friendly and confirms low cattle numbers, but also the continued strain on feedlots in the South due to the inability to source feeder cattle from Mexico.
“Placements at 90%, versus a 91% estimate, I mean, that’s just kind of continually showing, we’ve got tight numbers, you know, the numbers aren’t there, the calves are not there,” he says.
However, he says the last time placements and markets were this low was in 2015, which may be signaling heifer retention is starting to take place.
” I do think heifer retention is happening. That’s part of the reason we’re seeing these smaller placements and lower marketing those heifers are going back to the cow herd. We’ve got moisture, we’ve got incentive to do so, you know, with a really good market. And, and these guys have sold really, really hard. And now you also have a producer that’s made a lot of money this year. We’ve got to think about it from an income tax perspective too,” he explains.
So he says producers may be holding heifers back deciding if they want to breed them or not.
However, Varilek thinks the rebuild will be much slower than it was in 2015.
Market Reaction
Varilek says with the main categories so close to expectations he’s not expecting much of a market reaction in the cattle futures on Monday.
