Cattle and hogs are higher early Monday with corn lower, but soybeans and wheat holding gains.
Cattle Futures Bounce
Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says live and feeder cattle futures are higher early Monday after a lower day Friday and the second week of lower weekly closes.
Friday’s selloff seemed to be tied to fear of what Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins would be announcing regarding New World Screwworm (NWS) while in Oklahoma.
However, this isn’t the first time this type of talk or fear has triggered selling in the market and funds have been liquidating some of their long position, at least in the feeder cattle futures.
Can Cattle Futures Fully Recover?
Kooima says he is apprehensive about a full recover in the cattle futures after lower weekly closes and a chart that looks somewhat negative for feeders.
Last week the market took out key support at the 20-day moving averages in both live and feeder cattle futures which triggered some massive selling.
The cash market for both fed cattle and feeders is also starting to cool off says Kooima, which may also limit the recovery.
Fed cash cattle traded at $240 live last week in the South, which moved slightly premium to the North.
Northern live prices were mainly $238 to $240, $3 to $5 lower, with the North seeing lower prices on a dressed basis by $5 to $8 at mostly $375 to $378 but on very light volume.
The feeder cattle cash index was down $.39 at $365.47 but Oklahoma City saw cash prices down $8 to $15 according to Koomia.
Seasonally inventory starts to increase this time of year, while demand starts to soften and so this is not uncommon but he says it may keep the market in check for a while.
Lean Hogs Just Off Contract Highs
The lean hog futures are higher again on Monday with cattle and are just off new contract highs.
Funds have been pushing the long side of the market, but fundamentally is this move justified?
Kooima says the cutouts have been holding together and cash has been stronger than normal for this time of year, still seeing the effect of tighter numbers and disease issues.
However, he isn’t sure how much more the futures can extend the gains, especially in the deferred futures as he expects an increase in inventory by spring, with better health in herds.
Corn Futures Lower
After some 10 cent gains on Friday the corn market started lower on Monday morning’s day session.
December futures got above the 100-day moving average but saw some profit taking and report hangover with the record production total of 16.814 billion bu., up 72 million from August.
USDA did report a flash sale of 5.9 million bu. or 148,971 MT of corn to unknown destinations for the 2025-26 marketing year.
Soybeans Up on China Optimism?
Soybeans are slightly higher early with optimism about China talks.
President Trump has posted that they reached an agreement on TikTok and will be talking to President Xi on Friday.
However, Kooima says it has yet to be confirmed by any Chinese media and so farmers need to be cautious about jumping the gun thinking a deal that includes soybeans is around the corner.
Instead, he thinks the market is realizing the tight balance sheet if yields continue to come down in the future due to disease and dryness late in the season.
