The September crop estimates will include USDA’s first objective yield or field samples for corn and soybeans. The National Ag Statistic Service will also adjust acreage if needed. Combine that with the year-to-year change in crop condition ratings at the beginning of September, and traders are looking for lower yields.
Average trade guesses indicate more than a 1.5 bushel drop in corn yield to 173.5 bushels per acre, cutting production by 100 million bushels. The wild card is harvested acres, as the trade is estimating an increase of 120,000 acres. However, that’s down from the over a million acre increase implied after the August FSA data was released. So, ending stocks are projected to be down 60 million bushels, but still at 2.14 billion.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says, “Everybody’s expecting that we are going to see lower corn yields come in this report, just because of the hot dry conditions that we’ve seen, especially as of late but they’re also worried about what’s going to happen on the acreage side. And then also, there’s going to be some concerns about demand especially on the export side.”
Soybean yields are also estimated to drop .7 bpa to 50.2 bushels, factor in the increase in harvested acres of 140,000 and the result is a drop in production of around 53 million bushels. So, ending stocks would be trimmed by another 38 million to 207 million bushels.
Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures says, " A 240-million-bushel carryout is tight and now with you potentially take a bushel off of that maybe more depending on just how badly the heat actually hurt the soybean crop the last three weeks as well as the dryness. You’re talking about a rationing situation again.”
Wheat carryover is projected to drop just 2 million bushels from August to 613 million, with a slight increase in spring wheat yields.
