Why Did Grains Give Back Friday’s Gains? Will Selling Escalate into Month End?

Grains end lower on Monday on weather forecasts for rain in the corn belt and increased farmer selling. Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag says cattle saw short covering.

Grains end lower on Monday erasing most of the gains from Friday, while cattle rallied, and hogs were mixed.

Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says forecasts for rain in the corn belt weighed on grains.

He says there was also a pickup in farmer selling after the rally Friday, as farmers are selling ahead of planting season with the end of April approaching some will have to price or roll basis fixed contracts. He says that selling pressure could be similar to what happened at the end of February when May corn hit a contract low.

According to Martinson grains were also removing war premium after Middle East fighting failed to escalate to all-out war.

A higher dollar index was also negative for the grain markets on continued inflation fears.

Demand has improved slightly with export inspections on wheat at 20.3 million bushels. Corn came in at 52.5 million bushels and for the year are now up 34% from last year. Plus, the corn market saw a flash sale of 6.5 mb sold to Mexico, mostly current marketing year.

Soybean export inspections were at 15.9 million bushels and although the NOPA crush figure came in at a record 196.4 mb it was under expectations and did not help the market.

Cattle saw a short covering bounce with triple digit gains as that market was oversold and despite a lower stock market.

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Joe Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says its difficult to say because the fundamentals are still sluggish with the north seeing heavy weight cattle that have not been able to find a home.
Dave Chatterton with Strategic Farm Marketing says the markets needs a catalyst like South American weather or demand to find a bottom.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the outside market news has been a factor in cattle but the main catalyst for the selling has been sharply lower cash trade which started breaking early in the week.
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