Market Analysis
Soybeans gapped higher Sunday night and made new highs for the move again on Monday says Mark Schultz with Northstar Commodity.
Joe Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek says the question is whether or not a bounce in the cattle can hold or if funds will use it to exit more of their long positions.
Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors says wheat has been leading the grains higher and how long the rally can be sustained is dependent on how long the Black Sea export slowdown lasts.
Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says everybody’s looking for the bottom in the cattle market and wants to know if it is close.
Garrett Toay with AgTraderTalk says after the big rally to start the week the grain markets saw some profit taking and corrective selling.
DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing says the wheat market was trying to extend gains early Thursday but may be getting close to pricing the Black Sea export disruptions in.
Oliver Sloup Blue Line Futures, says wheat prices skyrocketed adding risk premium on concerns about the escalating Black Sea war and the disruptions it is causing in the export market. It could have more upside left.
Wheat futures were up 30 to 35 cents early Wednesday adding risk premium as Russia and Ukraine attacks have escalated says Jamie Gieseke with Paradigm Futures.
Rich Nelson, chief strategist for Allendale says row crops are pausing right now until the weather story is really decided, while wheat is concerned about rising tensions in the Black Sea region.
Kevin Duling with KD Investors says corn and soybeans eased with a 1% improvement in ratings, while the weather is moderating.
Dave Chatterton with Strategic Farm Marketing says the market initially traded the heat for this week which is unwelcome for corn during pollination time.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says the cattle charts look tough right now.
Corn futures ended 8 to 9 cents higher on Friday on the heels of the sharply higher wheat market and friendly numbers in the July WASDE.
Early Friday cattle utures tried to stage an early recovery but it was short lived as funds have been selling every rally. Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says his fear is the high is in the cattle market.
Corn and soybeans were lower on Thursday seeing further consolidation after hitting chart resistance and with the WASDE on Friday.
Grain markets were lower on Wednesday and to start Thursday, seeing profit taking after hitting key chart resistance and with cooler, wetter extended weather forecast for the Midwest. That’s according to Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag.
Live cattle futures were lower again on Wednesday and have spent several consecutive days under the 100-day moving average. Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says it is looking like more than a healthy correction.
Mark Knight of Farmers Keeper Financial says the market was looking for confirmation of China soybean purchases and now will need to see more sales to continue the rally.
November soybeans failed to close above the key $12 level and Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing thinks the market may be running out of runway as Monday was mostly technical buying.
Darin Newsom, senior market analyst with Barchart says Turnaround Tuesday action is not unexpected after a big rally but grains continue to be sensitive to weather and China news.
Chuck Shelby with Zaner Ag Hedge says grains reacted to China’s Commerce Ministry confirming it plans to lower tariffs on U.S. soybeans and other grains.
Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says funds continue to pressure the cattle futures and he anticipates that will continue after last week’s lower weekly closes.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures were struggling early Thursday with lower cash as the packers are trying to break the market with their own inventory.
Darren Frye with Water Street Solutions says the follow through buying was very important to show the higher close on Tuesday was not a head fake.
Jon Scheve with Scheve Grain says USDA punted on corn with the June Acreage Report and now farmers are in limbo until the August certified acres. So what should they do from a marketing standpoint?
Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX, says the additional cut in winter wheat acres was a surprise but there were others as well.
Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics, says grains were pressured by a host of factors including weather and fund liquidation.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are down with a risk off day in the ag markets. End of quarter profit taking and talk of a packer bailout is also weighing on futures.
DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing says the trade action Friday was disappointing in corn and soybeans after key reversals on Thursday.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures were seeing some profit taking early Friday as they are overbought. However, futures haven’t stayed down long with the strength in the cash market.