For the past three weeks, soybeans have been lower with the January contract now correcting nearly $1.20 off the Nov. 18 highs. The March contract has corrected $1.12. This comes as USDA is gearing up to announce payment rates for the Farmers Bridge Assistance (FBA) program this week. The University of Illinois’ Farmdoc estimates the payment rate for corn at $46 per acre and soybeans at $25 per acre.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the FBA program will impact his planting decisions for the 2026 crop season. A $46-per-acre payment on corn is woefully inadequate for him to plant corn next spring.
“This is like a bridge to nowhere,” he says.
Gulke says it’s politically popular for the administration to keep food prices as low as possible and still keep farmers in business. However, a $46 payment will barely cover his nitrogen fertilizer costs.
“I think [my fertilizer cost is] going to be up $33 an acre. If I get $45, then I just give it away again, and then maybe I farm another year,” he explains.
Plus, upside potential for corn is limited with carryout over 2.029 billion bushels, Gulke says.
“As it stands right now, we carried in 1.5 billion bushels. That’s 600 million bushels more carried into this marketing year than in 2024-2025,” he adds. “It’s going to be tough. We’re going to need a crop problem in the United States to solve that.”
Plant More Soybeans in 2026?
While the $25 per acre bridge payment on soybeans also falls short for farmers, Gulke says the cost of production is lower, making this option more attractive to him for 2026.
He can break even at $10 on soybeans sold out of the field, and even if the basis is wide, he won’t lose as much money on soybeans as he will on corn. If he puts the bridge payment and hedge profits into planting corn, it will quickly be gone to pay for fertilizer and herbicide.
“I got a quote for Roundup at $26 a gallon. That’s crazy,” Gulke says. “I’m just going to throw it away so I can break even and make $50 or $60 an acre on corn when someone just gave me $46? That’s like spitting in the wind.”
Gulke says the logical choice for his operation is to plant soybeans, which take fewer inputs and labor.
“I’ll plant soybeans, and I can combine them with a 40-foot head. I’m done pretty fast, I can put them in the bin and I can cut my labor and some of my machinery costs,” he adds.
Those farmers who didn’t apply anhydrous last fall still have options.
“I’m not opposed at all to planting beans on beans. I did that two years ago, and I didn’t suffer much of a loss at all,” Gulke says.
Fall Rally Presented a Profit in Soybeans
With the $1.40 rally up to $11.70 this fall in the soybean market, the nearby January contract offered a price that was more than $1 higher than 2024. For Gulke that presented an opportunity to hedge and lock in a profit.
“Corn hasn’t moved enough yet to make hedges profitable, but I took advantage of some fall prices in beans for 2026. I can take the profits on my soybean hedges and the bridge payment and when I put it into Excel spreadsheets from the University of Illinois it shows soybeans are my best option,” he says.
Each producer’s situation is different and Gulke stresses the importance of each operation evaluating how the USDA bridge payment will affect their profit and loss for 2025 or planting decisions for 2026.
For more information, contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com.
