Weekend Market Report
Stay updated on grain markets with AgWeb’s Weekend Market Report by Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the grain markets turned this week, not on trade news, but rather on less talked about factors.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says some in the market attributed the recovery to short covering but he thinks a some significant trade developments also played a role, as well as the upcoming USDA reports.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the news EPA is raising blending mandates for biomass-based diesel above expectations came as a surprise but was positive for farmers and the biofuels industry.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the gains were impressive considering the ongoing uncertainty regarding weather, trade and the geopolitical environment.
The grain markets were lower for the week, except for hard red spring wheat. Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says he thinks the pressure was largely in response to this week’s surprising trade developments.
After turning bearish last week, Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says he watched the markets all rally without a real fundamental reason for the move.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says there are several factors that indicate to him the chance to rally old crop corn to $5 is over.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says, “Soybeans have been the surprise and there are several factors that have allowed that market to remain resilient.”
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the April WASDE confirmed the tighter balance sheets he had been expecting for several reports but that’s just the start of the bullish news.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says one of the markets that was able to cut through the tariff noise and end higher for the week was corn.
Based on decades of experience, Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, is bracing for a big surprise in USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report on March 31.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says while he is short term bearish on corn his longer-term outlook is still bullish.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says despite the volatility tied to tariffs, the corn and soybean markets closed only slightly lower for the week and Gulke was impressed at the reset off the lows that produced a hook reversal on the charts.
After several weeks of being bullish on corn, Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, bought protection against downside risk in the market. What changed his mind? It was signs he saw even before USDA released it’s corn acreage at the Ag Outlook Forum.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, thinks the corn market may just be taking a pause to refresh and he hasn’t changed his bullish stance. “I’m willing to have some patience,” he says.
Is it possible the wheat market is finally seeing the same paradigm shift that’s already taken place in the corn market? Jerry Gulke is watching several signals for an answer, including speculator activity in the wheat market.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says grains took a pause Friday in preparation for the February WASDE but is in the critical price discovery process before planting.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says corn and soybeans posted lower weekly closes, which was the first time in several weeks for corn. So is the bull market in corn over?
Corn, soybeans and wheat all closed higher for the week in the face of heightened uncertainty. Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says to him that kind of resilience is an underlying sign of a bull market.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the strength in corn can pull the soybean markets and maybe even wheat higher for a handful of fundamental reasons.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says as of Friday’s report, USDA has dropped corn ending stocks nearly 1 billion bushels from their initial estimate during the February 2024 Ag Outlook Forum when the agency projected carryout at 2.532 billion bushels based on trend-line yield.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the weekly continuation chart corn is trading above the October high, the 50-day and the 200-day moving average. “The chart is telling us to have a little patience in this uptrending market,” he adds.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says after the 200 million bushel cut to corn ending stocks in the December WASDE he wonders if USDA is preparing the marketplace for more of the same in the final January report?
The first full week of trading in December can be enlightening and Gulke Group president Jerry Gulke says this year is no exception, especially after the 2024 election. However, he thinks the bulk of the bearish news may be priced into the corn market.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the election might have brought about a paradigm shift in the approach to agricultural policies.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says as harvest wraps up it is a good time to review the year’s markets.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says price performance might have been a little disappointing but that’s because of USDA’s lofty ending stocks estimates at nearly 2 billion bushels for corn and 550 million bushels for soybeans.
“The bottom line is the function of the market — when you have too much, you become the cheapest seller, not necessarily the cheapest producer,” says Jerry Gulke.
The October WASDE effectively solidified the supply side of the U.S. corn and soybean balance sheets for the 2024-25 marketing year, though Gulke was surprised USDA didn’t raise yields because harvest has never been so good on his farm.
Jerry Gulke, president of The Gulke Group, thinks the party is over in the grains, at least for now, due to several key factors.