For the week, July corn was down 1½¢, December corn was up 10¾, July soybeans climbed 15½, November soybeans gained 10¼, July soybean meal lost 60¢ and July soybean oil was up 61 points. July hard red winter wheat was 16 higher, July soft red winter wheat soared 20 3/4 and July hard red spring wheat was up 11.
Grain and oilseed markets were mostly higher for the week except for old-crop corn.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the gains were impressive considering the ongoing uncertainty regarding weather, trade and the geopolitical environment.
He points to three factors that might have triggered the higher week in the grain markets.
1. Technical Buying.
Gulke was especially impressed with how the corn market acted this week. He says after hitting new lows for 2025 earlier in the week, it chose not to go any lower.
“We needed the corn market to turn around and hold that low and it did. Corn did it with a vengeance, really turned around, rallied right back up again and went up to that 50-day moving average.”
According to Gulke, that was a technical signal for fund or speculative traders to stop selling and cover some of their short positions, which had grown to over 100,000 short in corn.
Soybeans were already above the 50-day moving average on the charts as was soft red winter wheat.
“The 50-day moving average carries some respect by the traders of the world, so that’s why I talk about it,” he says.
Gulke says when he can’t decipher the fundamentals of the market, then he, and world traders, turns to the technical for direction.
“I think that’s where we’re at for a while,” he adds.
2. Markets Were Adding Weather Premium.
At current prices, Gulke says new crop corn and soybeans markets have very little weather premium built in. However, this week there were more forecasts for a hot and dry summer with a change in pattern starting in the last half of June.
“You have to build a premium in here somewhere, and that might have started already. There was enough unknown out there I guess for a person to buy grain,” he says.
If this is the early phase of a weather market, Gulke says they usually last five to six weeks.
“If that’s the case, we’re looking at five weeks from the start in June, which is July 4. It fits right in with the traders being cautious. A long time ago, when I worked with Willard Sparks, he said, ‘if you can tell me what the weather is going to be like on the week after the 4th of July, I’ll tell you what’s going to happen in the marketplace.’ I kept that in the back of my mind,” he says.
3. Ice Breaks with China on Trade.
Thursday’s call between President Trump and Chinese President Xi was labeled as “productive” and resulted in a follow-up meeting being scheduled to talk trade. Gulke says the news helped instill some confidence and buying interest in at least the soybean market.
“If that exchange between the two leaders would have been negative, like it has been in the past, the soybean and other markets could have collapsed,” he says.
President Donald Trump on Friday said three of his cabinet officials will meet with representatives of China in London on June 9 to discuss a trade deal.
For more information, contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com.
