shapes 2027 buying
With global supply, production costs and geopolitics all in flux, the September panel for the Ag Economists Monthly Monitor is advising growers to hedge their fertilizer bets. Forty-four percent recommend pricing a portion of 2027 needs now and leaving the rest open, 28% would lock in most or all of it this fall and just 11% would hold cash for spring. Most don't expect a price decline: only 11% see spring wholesale fertilizer prices coming down. Meanwhile, the Ag Economy Index — a composite of three questions asked every month — slipped to 53 from July's 61 as the 12-month outlook dipped below neutral.
Key Takeaways from the September Panel
Hedge the fertilizer bill, brace for costly inputs.
The panel's fertilizer advice reflects uncertainty, not conviction. Forty-four percent recommend buying a portion of 2027 fertilizer now and waiting to price the rest, 28% recommend locking in most or all needs this fall and 11% would hold cash for potential spring pricing. The largest share — 35% — point to where they expect fertilizer prices to go between now and spring as the reason.
Few expect relief. Thirty-nine percent expect wholesale fertilizer prices next spring to be modestly higher and 33% expect them to stay about where they are. Energy costs tell a similar story: 67% call EIA's $4.40-a-gallon 2027 diesel forecast too optimistic, and 84% say input and energy costs will matter most to rural voters this election cycle.
Near-term sentiment held up — 58% say the ag economy is better off than a month ago — but the forward view softened. Thirty-two percent expect conditions to be worse in 12 months against 26% who expect them to be better, pulling the Ag Economy Index down to 53.
The September reading slipped to 53
Each bar shows how that tracking question nets out on a 0–100 scale where 50 is neutral — the share of economists calling conditions better minus those calling them worse. The headline reading is the report's monthly composite, weighted 20/20/60 toward the 12-month outlook.
Factors driving agriculture's next 12 months
Input costs — especially fuel and fertilizer
Commodity prices and the size of the 2026 crop
Geopolitics, energy markets and logistics
The state of the U.S. ag economy
58% call conditions better than a month ago
47% see improvement over a year ago
More expect a worse year ahead than a better one
Price a portion now, leave the rest open
Geopolitical turmoil continues to shape global fertilizer supply and demand, but its impact varies sharply among nitrogen, phosphorus and potash — and sulfur has emerged as an unexpected pressure point for phosphate. That leaves corn and soybean growers with a tough call on how much of their 2027 inputs to price this fall.
Just 11% would wait for spring.
When asked which fertilizer purchasing strategy best positions a typical commercial corn grower in their region for 2027, 44% recommend buying a portion now and waiting to price the rest. Another 28% recommend locking in most or all needs this fall. The split reflects the uncertainty surrounding where fertilizer prices are headed.
Price direction drives the call
The largest share of economists — 35% — cite their expectations for fertilizer prices between now and next spring as the primary reason behind their recommendation.
Most don't expect a price decline
Half the panel expects spring wholesale fertilizer prices to be higher than today and another third expects them to hold. For nitrogen, nearly 43% expect spring 2027 anhydrous ammonia to average $800 to $860 per ton in their region, while 57% expect $950 to $1,150.
Only 11% expect prices to come down
56% expect $950 to $1,150 per ton
The benchmark for this fall
USDA Agricultural Marketing Service data put the average anhydrous ammonia price at $945 per ton for the week ending Oct. 2 — squarely between the panel's two camps for spring 2027.
Three nutrients, three different stories
Corey Rosenbusch, CEO of The Fertilizer Institute, says geopolitics remain the biggest factor in global fertilizer markets, but those forces are hitting each nutrient differently.
China's urea could ease a tight market
After years of export restrictions, China appears to be easing its stance on urea, with reports that Chinese urea production is up roughly 30%. A significant return could shift the global nitrogen balance.
Sulfur is the new pressure point
Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz pushed sulfur as high as $1,300 per metric ton, idling some MAP and DAP production. Analysts estimate global phosphate output could fall by as much as 30 million metric tons next year.
Belarus returns, Canada still matters
Belarusian potash is returning after sanctions were lifted, but it is priced in line with the global market plus freight — and won't replace the volumes U.S. growers receive from Canada.
New domestic capacity — including ammonia and phosphate facilities breaking ground in Louisiana and a $500 million USDA program — could strengthen the U.S. supply chain, but won't mean cheaper fertilizer overnight. A new ammonia plant can cost $4 billion to $5 billion and take years to reach full production, and U.S.-made product still prices in line with the global market.
The fertilizer equation is a commodity-price equation
After years of high prices and reduced applications, Rosenbusch says some growers are reaching the point where they need to replenish phosphorus and potash removed with the crop — on top of high costs for diesel, interest, equipment and land.
Corn's cost line runs near $4.75
A median breakeven of $4.75 a bushel.
When asked what cash corn price covers the full economic cost of production for an average Corn Belt grower in 2027, estimates ranged from $4.00 to $5.25, with a median of $4.75 and an average of $4.76. Eight in 10 put the number at $4.50 or higher.
Balancing growers against feeders
There's no consensus on the corn price that balances row-crop profitability against feed costs for livestock, dairy and poultry producers — the panel splits evenly across the $4.00 to $5.49 range.
Thin carry, thinner cushions
Heading into winter, more than half the panel says the average commercial row-crop operation's working capital is weaker than a year ago — the same pressure that weighs on fertilizer purchasing decisions.
Half are unsure the carry pays
56% say working capital is weaker
Diesel relief looks a year or more away
EIA's September Short-Term Energy Outlook projects retail diesel averaging $5.07 a gallon in 2026 and easing to $4.40 in 2027 as crude production recovers. Diesel averaged near $5.97 in early September, a nominal record. The panel isn't counting on a quick decline.
Most say one to two years
Two-thirds call EIA's forecast too optimistic
The Fed's first hike since 2023
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate 25 basis points on Sept. 16 to a target range of 3.75% to 4%. A third of the panel says higher carrying costs on operating notes will have the greatest impact on farm operations over the next 12 months — while another third say higher rates aren't among the top risks to farm balance sheets.
Input costs top the rural ballot
USDA projects a decline of roughly 6 million acres in major U.S. field crop plantings over the next decade. The largest share of the panel blames lost export competitiveness to South America.
The midterms matter — and so does the cost of inputs
Congress returns in November with the Senate farm bill awaiting a floor vote, the 2018 Farm Bill extension expired and diesel at nominal record highs.
Three in four say at least somewhat significant
84% say input and energy costs
The risks and opportunities few are talking about
When asked for the most underappreciated risk or opportunity facing U.S. agriculture heading into 2027, the panel pointed to energy and biofuel demand, policy shifts, the broader economy — and the long-run question of U.S. food security.
The U.S. is becoming less food secure. Policy, regulation, labor, inputs and competition for water are all making it more difficult for agriculture, so we import ever larger shares of our fruits and vegetables, and now were increasing beef imports. Let's not forget that food security is really national security.
Biofuel development is going to be a big deal again. High fuel prices and increasing incentives (policy- and market-driven) will increase global biofuel demand. That will be a developing story in 2027.
An unexpected weakening of the economy, perhaps due to changing views on the future of AI, could weaken global demand and prices of both farm inputs and outputs.
Continued overproduction driven by insurance payments creating a lower for longer commodity price cycle.
I am getting more and more worried about re-opening of RVOs; they did not look obtainable in the most recent report.
Growth in U.S. bioenergy production (ethanol and renewable diesel) to help moderate tight U.S. gasoline and biodiesel market conditions and fuel prices to U.S. fuel users.
Terms of trade with Mexico and Canada.
Upside risk to energy prices. Higher interest rates. Inflationary pressures on consumer demand.
About the Ag Economist Monthly Monitor
The Ag Economists Monthly Monitor is administered by Farm Journal and published on AgWeb. Each survey is administered to a vetted list of agricultural economists from across the United States.
Three of those questions repeat every survey, so changes can be tracked over time: current conditions vs. the prior month, current conditions vs. a year ago and the panel's outlook for the next twelve months. The trend chart plots those three categories. The composite sentiment index is a rebase of the four response shares to a single 0–100 number.
Responses are anonymous. Economists give the unvarnished view they cannot always offer with their name attached, and the panel composition is broad enough to cover crop, livestock, policy and ag finance perspectives. Reporting and analysis are produced by the AgWeb editorial team and overviews are aired on AgDay, AgriTalk and U.S. Farm Report.
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