Pro Farmer Analysis: Traders Expect Confirmation of Smaller Corn Crop

04:31PM Sep 10, 2020
Corn 01
( Aimee Cope )

Traders are looking for USDA to confirm a smaller U.S. corn crop. The average trade estimate is for USDA to cut production about 380 million bu. from last month’s forecast and for ending stocks to fall about 300 million bu. from August. However, total U.S. supplies will remain about 1.2 billion bushels larger than last year and ending stocks will rise to the highest 33 years. Traders expect a national average corn yield of 178.3 bushels per acre, off 1.92 percent from USDA’s August estimates on 83.5 million harvested acres, down 500 thousand from the August forecast. 

The range of pre-report guesses on USDA’s projected soybean yield is just 2 bushels wide at an average of 51.8 bushels per acre nationally for a total crop of 4.295 billion bushels on harvested acreage of 82.9 acres. Compared to USDA’s August forecasts, production would fall 2.94 percent with the yield off 2.81% and harvested acreage off just a tenth of a percentage point. If the average trade guess on U.S. soybean carry over is realized, it would mark a 15 million bushel decline from USDA’s August numbers at 600 million bushels for old crop and down a whopping 24 percent from August at 465 million bushels for new crop carry over. 

In August, USDA forecast U.S. cotton production at 18.08 million bales. On Average, traders expect cotton production to fall to 17.57 million bales, a 2.82 percent decline if realized. U.S. cotton carryover is expected by traders to slip 7.76% to 7.01 million bales.

Traders expect U.S. wheat carryover to fall one million bushels to 924 million bushels from USDA’s August estimate of 925.

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