Wheat Prices Have Potential to Rebound

01:57PM Jul 18, 2019
Wheat field
( Charles Johnson )

In it's latest Crop Progress report, USDA says roughly 60% of the nation's wheat crop has been harvested. Kansas and Nebraska are both running well behind the five-year average. September wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade continuing to trend lower since late last month and is now below $5.

During an interview on AgDay with Clinton Griffiths, Dan Hueber of The Hueber Report said the July WASDE report helped set the stage for the wheat market.

"World ending stocks were dropped further than anybody anticipated," says Hueber. "You look around the globe, Europe is having a little bit of dry weather problem although probably not enough to really impact the crop."

Hueber says the drawdown is a welcome sight as domestic crops roll in with relatively decent yields.

"Now granted, they haven't moved that far north into what would have really been considered the troubled areas here in the spring," says Hueber. 

He says given the challenges for corn this spring there may be opportunities for wheat at the feed bunk. 

"You're probably going to see a nice kick up in the use of feed wheat this year," says Hueber. "We're going to get a little boost in demand that we haven't witnessed for the last four to five years when it comes to a feed usage."

As far as marketing strategies, Hueber says it depends on where you live.
"It all hinges on where your basis is in your local area and what the availability of storage is," says Hueber.  "[Like corn] the basis levels could become a little bit unwieldy this year, on the positive side for the farmer, and so you want to take advantage of any piece of storage you'd have."

Hueber says even while there appears to be a little bit of retracement in markets the potential is there to move higher. 

"I think as we move into the latter part of summer and we see that demand start to emerge [then] we've got some higher price potential," says Hueber. "I'm not terribly anxious to sell into weakness at this point."

Wheat Market Outlook 071819