What Does the Prop 12 Decision Mean for the Hog Markets?

What impact will the Proposition 12 decision have on the livestock industry and specifically the U.S. hog market?

The U.S. Supreme Court sided with the state of California and Proposition 12 that prohibits the sale of pork in the state not produced according to California’s production standards. In a 5-4 ruling, the court dismissed a lawsuit filed by agriculture interests against the law.

Pork producers have fought Prop 12 from the beginning because they believe it’s a violation of the Commerce Clause and that the ruling will set a dangerous precedent for the livestock industry and negatively impact the hog market.

Prop 12 will force pork producers that want to sell into the California market to comply with their strict production standards, which require more square footage and ban the use of gestation crates. Steve Meyer, Lead Economist with Partners in Production Agriculture looked at how that will lower the productivity in the operations that produce for that market. “And tried to take a look at building costs and a reduction in farrowing rates because of breeding crates and all those kinds of things. And I came up with that it was going to cost anywhere from $8 to $12 a head, okay, to produce the pigs for them.”

And he says California is a significant market for pork as they must import nearly all of their product. Meyer says, “California is about 14% of our consumption and about 10% of our production. So, if you’re going to look at what the market impacts are here you’ve got to look at the production number.” He estimates that could have from a 10% to 12% negative effect on the entire wholesale pork market.

This ruling could also open the door for production restrictions from other states and branch out to other species. Plus, it will drive up the price of pork for consumers in California.

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