South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his estimate of Brazil’s 2016-17 corn crop by 1 MMT from last week to 83 MMT, which if realized would be up 25.8% from year-ago. He says planting of full-season corn is around 40% complete, which is more advanced than 26% on average.
He says some farmers in Parana have stopped planting corn due to dry conditions, but says the crop that has emerged in southern Brazil is rated in good condition, although the vegetative growth has been slowed by cool temperatures.
Cordonnier also notes his estimates are “just the first educated guess of the crop and they will certainly change as the season progresses.” Brazil’s Conab will release its first crop estimates on Oct. 6.
| Dr. Cordonnier 2016-17 Soybean Estimates | Est. | Maximum | Minimum | 2015-16 |
in million metric tons | ||||
| Brazil | 100.0 | 103.0 | 96.0 | 95.5 |
| Argentina | 58.0 | 60.0 | 56.0 | 56.0 |
| Paraguay | 9.1 | 10.0 | 8.5 | 9.0 |
| Bolivia | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 3.0 |
| Uruguay | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 2.0 |
| Total | 173.2 | 180.0 | 165.9 | 165.5 |
| Dr. Cordonnier 2016-17 Corn Estimates | Est. | Maximum | Minimum | 2015-16 |
in million metric tons | ||||
| Brazil | 83.0 | 88.0 | 78.0 | 66.0 |
| Argentina | 35.0 | 38.0 | 32.0 | 27.0 |
| Paraguay | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 3.1 |
| Bolivia | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Uruguay | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Total | 122.3 | 131.6 | 113.6 | 97.2 |
Cordonnier left all of his other crop estimates unchanged. He says around 5% of the Brazilian soybean crop is planted compared to 3% last year and 4% on average. In Argentina, around 21% of the corn crop has been planted, compared to 13% last year and 14% on average. Soybean planting has not yet begun in Argentina and Cordonnier says the country’s decision not to lower the soybean export tax could result in some additional shifting in acres to corn.
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