Stable crop conditions and some unexpected rains made grain prices drift lower this week.
September corn prices were down 7.5¢, and December corn prices were down 7.75¢, for the week ending July 23. August soybean prices were down 54.5¢, while November soybean prices were down 41.75¢. September wheat prices were down 8.75¢
“We got some rains that helped save the crop in some areas or at least kick the can down the road to buy a little more time,” says Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group. “We’ve gotten over another hump and the odds are the crops are not going to be a complete failure.”
As of July 18, USDA reports 65% of the U.S. corn crop is rated good or excellent. For soybeans, 60% of the crop is rated good or excellent.
“We have nothing, but hot and dry weather forecast for the next five to seven days in the northern Plains, some triple-digit stuff, and it didn’t seem to bother the market much,” he says. “But that’s typical of a weather market; they peak early.”
Gulke says corn, soybean and wheat prices all peaked around May 7 to May 12.
“That’s quite a while ago, and we’ve not been able to get above that level yet,” he says. “Now we’re running out of time to get a long-term drought disaster. We’re closing that window and it’s unfortunate that prices probably have seen their highs for the year.”
Gulke says grain buyers, especially in the U.S. export market are not willing to chase high-priced corn or soybeans right now.
“All the talk about tight stocks is behind us for now,” he says. “It’s a long time until we run out of grain. So, why pay up for it now when farmers will probably sell a lot of grain off the combine anyway?”
Check the latest market prices in AgWeb’s Commodity Markets Center.
Jerry Gulke farms in Illinois and North Dakota. He is president of Gulke Group. Disclaimer: There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures or options, and each investor and trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. There is no guarantee the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
