Market Analysis
According to Tommy Grisafi of Nesvick Trading money flow the last two sessions in the outside markets had a huge impact on ag markets.
Jon Scheve with Scheve Grain thinks the grain markets have transitioned over to trading more of its own fundamentals.
Mark Schultz with Northstar Commodity says the grains and energy sector started higher on war headlines but peaked out quickly by mid session acting like it wasn’t that concerned about the war.
Live cattle futures made new and all-time contract highs on Friday with the April contract closing above $250.
Don Roose with U.S. Commodities say soybeans followed meal and hold a premium on hopes of China business.
Chip Nellinger with Blue Reef Agri-Marketing says, “USDA did rearrange some of the soybean demand estimates with crush raised 35 million bu. while exports were lowered the same amount.”
Ted Seifried with Zaner Ag Hedge says markets were removing war premium but the key is will the ceasefire stick and does the Strait of Hormuz get reopened?
The commodity wide selling pressure was tied to risk aversion and uncertainty regarding the escalation of the Iran War according to Mark Knight with Farmers Keeper Financial.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the live cattle futures are chasing sharply higher cash trade from last week.
Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors says corn and soybeans are experiencing war fatigue and are tired of chasing every headline.
Darin Newsom, senior market analyst with Barchart says the grains are chasing the sharply higher crude oil prices which were up over $10 and Iran war headlines.
Bryan Doherty with Total Farm Marketing says the grain markets markets were removing war and weather premium. Will that continue with if the Iran war is indeed over?
DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing says with the reports out of the way the grain market has gone back to trading Iran war headlines and following the crude oil market
Arlan Suderman with StoneX some of the support in the grains Tuesday came from money flow but lower wheat and soybean acreage than anticipated also added to the buying interest.
Corn, soybeans and bean oil futures ended lower on Friday fading EPA’s final Renewable Fuel Standard volumes. Dan Basse, Ag Resource Company, says the news was already priced into the markets.
Joe Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the ability of the cattle market to divorce itself from the outside markets the last two sessions has been very impressive.
Soybeans futures extended nice gains from Wednesday with demand optimism surrounding the rescheduling of the China summit for May 14 -15 and the announcement of RVOs says Jim McCormick of AgMarket.Net.
Allison Thompson with The Money Farm thinks the grains markets are starting to divorce from the influence of war headlines and trade their own fundamentals.
Soybeans were slightly higher early but saw buying accelerate and the bull spreads kick in after the White House announced a new date for the China summit says Kevin Duling of KD Investors.
Jamie Gieseke with Paradigm Futures says the energy and grain markets are still chasing headlines trying to determine a fair prices. However, farmers need to ignore that noise when trying to make marketing decisions.
Mike Zuzolo with Global Commodity Analytics says corn and wheat followed the energy markets but also added weather premium. Soybeans were lower as China has eased its phytosanitary rules to take Brazil beans.
Corn futures were back higher on Tuesday morning following a recovery in the crude oil market says Vince Boddicker with Farmer Trading Company.
Brian Grete with CommStock Investments says corn and wheat fell with crude oil as the President announced a 5-day pause in the military strikes in Iran.
Cattle futures are higher early following the big rally in the equity markets says Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek.
Darren Frye with Water Street Solutions says longer term if energy prices stay higher the funds could continue to buy grains on inflation fears but he’s not sure about a full super cycle without several factors falling into place.
Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle and hogs are struggling Thursday with the set back in the equity markets.
Dave Chatterton with Strategic Farm Marketing says the ongoing Iran war and higher crude oil prices helped drive speculative buying interest in grains.
Brady Huck from Empower Ag Trading says, “After the volatility that we’ve seen over the last couple of weeks, sometimes these markets just need to find some stability.
Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag says the limit down day in old crop soybeans was tied to the fear that the meeting between President Trump and President Xi scheduled for China at the end of the month will be delayed due to the war.
Wheat was the price leader on Friday mostly on technical buying according to DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing.