Price action: March SRW wheat fell 3 3/4 cents to $7.53 1/2, up 19 1/4 cents for the week. March HRW wheat fell 16 1/2 cents to $8.44, still up 11 cents for the week. March spring wheat fell 9 1/4 cents to $9.09 1/2.
5-day outlook: March HRW and SRW futures both posted weekly gains for the first week in the past six, suggesting the markets may have established near-term bottoms. But today’s price weakness and the near-term technically bearish futures postures suggest some chart-based selling pressure early next week. Market focus next week includes an Arctic blast heading for the U.S. midsection, including HRW country, World Weather said, with snow cover needed in most areas to protect wheat from winterkill. Some snow is expected before the coldest temperatures arrive, however, “there is some concern of thin or no snow cover occurring in pockets of southwestern and interior western production areas,” the forecaster said.
30-day outlook: Disappointing U.S. wheat exports may continue limiting buying interest and rally attempts in wheat futures. However, stronger than expected export numbers in USDA’s weekly report suggest prices may have dropped far enough to prompt improved foreign demand. Still, sustained price gains will likely need another bullish element, such as a Ukraine grain-shipping disruption, to fuel a solid rally. USDA’s Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings Report on Jan. 12 will be a tone-setter in the first quarter of 2023.
90-day outlook: Wheat traders during the first few months of 2023 will watch weather in South American wheat regions, which at present need more moisture. Argentina’s wheat production outlook has been lowered due to drought. The Rosario Grain Exchange this week lowered its 2022-23 Argentine wheat crop forecast another 300,000 MT, to 11.5 MMT, which is well below the 19 MMT that was forecast at the start of the growing season.
What to do: [ available to Pro Farmer subscribers only - view subscription options ]
Hedgers: [ available to Pro Farmer subscribers only - view subscription options ]
Cash-only marketers: [ available to Pro Farmer subscribers only - view subscription options ]
