Price action: March futures fell 10 1/4 cents to $6.50, on session lows. Corn fell 27 3/4 cents on the week to the lowest level since the first week in January.
5-day outlook: Corn futures extended yesterday’s selling on the open and spent most of the session within a couple cents off session lows. There was a lot of buying interest propping March futures above the $6.50 level. Bulls want to see follow through to avoid a break below strong $6.50 support. There could be a bounce next week as the U.S. dollar takes a break off the recent bull run and corn buyers come out of the woodwork to take advantage of prices not seen since the beginning of January.
30-day outlook: Supplies remain tight and uncertain as Brazil continues struggling to plant safrinha corn. We are in the end of the ideal planting window, and though producers have been able to get valuable work done in the last week, they are still well behind schedule. Uncertainty lies in how well the late planted crop will perform as it is more vulnerable to weather stress. This uncertainty paired with tight supplies and continued uncertainty on the Black Sea grain corridor should be enough to continue to provide support for corn futures.
90-outlook: U.S corn exports continue to be well below the last 5-year pace and below USDA expectations. The rising U.S dollar has continued to impact agricultural trade, evidenced in the recent revisions to the USDA trade estimates, which expanded the trade deficit to $14.5 billion. If the U.S. is able to ring together some exports following this week’s selling, that would be a promising sign for corn bulls. Eyes will continue to be on the USDA prospective plantings as well, comparing numbers released on March 31 to the forecast released at the Outlook forum this week.
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