El Niño persists, although a steady weakening trend is evident in the oceanic indicators, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. It says international climate models suggest the central tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool in the coming months, with four of seven indicating the central Pacific is likely to return to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) levels in April and all models neutral in May. Forecasts beyond May “should be used with caution,” as predictions made in the southern hemisphere late-summer/autumn timeframe tend to be less accurate.
The bureau notes: “Around 50% of El Niño events have been followed by a neutral year, and 40% to 50% have been followed by La Niña. However, global oceans have warmed significantly over the past 50 years. The oceans have been the warmest on record globally between April 2023 and January 2024. These changes may make a difference when predicting future ENSO events based on historical activity.”
