EPA assumes there will be rising production of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), but that will cut into renewable diesel production. “Historically, greater incentives have been available for renewable diesel production, which has caused many of these production facilities to maximize renewable diesel production,” EPA explained. “In the near term, we expect that any increase in SAF production will result in a corresponding decrease in renewable diesel production.”
But renewable diesel production capacity is clearly on the rise, having reached 2.9 billion gallons as of January 2023. “A number of parties have announced plans to build new renewable diesel production capacity with the potential to begin production by the end of 2025,” EPA said. “This new capacity includes new renewable diesel production facilities, expansions of existing renewable diesel production facilities, and the conversion of units at petroleum refineries to produce renewable diesel.”
Still, EPA said they “expect that renewable diesel production through 2025 will be limited to a level below production capacity primarily due to limited feedstock availability.”
EPA noted the Energy Information Administration (EIA) “currently projects that renewable diesel production capacity could reach nearly 6 billion gallons by 2025, though it is possible that not all these announced projects will be completed, and not all of those that are completed will necessarily produce renewable diesel in the 2023–2025 timeframe addressed by this rule.”
