Price action: July corn futures fell 6 cents on the session to $6.04 1/4, falling 4 3/4 cents on the week. December corn futures fell 2 1/2 cents today to $5.30 1/2, bringing this week’s loss to 10 3/4 cents.
5-day outlook: Friday’s WASDE failed to break July corn futures out of the recent range. This week saw volatility that traded entirely within Monday’s range, with bulls and bears both failing to garner the momentum needed to break the range one way or the other. Weather will likely be the determining market mover over the next week, with recent dryness challenged by potential rain through June 17 with follow-up showers June 18-23 through much of the corn belt, according to World Weather Inc. A full restoration of soil moisture is still unlikely and more rain will be needed this month to keep crop conditions favorable.
30-day outlook: After today’s report, eyes have turned to the Quarterly Grain Stocks and the June acreage report. Spring weather in the northern Plains concerned traders and producers alike of planting issues and the resurgence of large prevent plant numbers in North Dakota and Minnesota. Recently, many of those concerns have alleviated as flooding subsided and the soil dried. The report on June 30 will show just how many of those acres were planted, potentially more than the USDA was accounting for in today’s report. The continued dryness likely points to more than expected plantings, which would weigh heavily on corn prices, barring any overwhelming weather scare.
90-day outlook: As the U.S. nears harvest and there is more certainty on production, eyes will shift towards the demand side of the balance sheet. Recently exports have been poor, leading to the USDA lowering their export forecast in today’s report by 50 million bushels to 1.725 billion bushels. Brazil will begin exporting their record crop in the interim, flooding the global market with additional cheap corn. As it stands, there is a lot of concern over ongoing U.S. corn demand, and while that can change at moment’s notice, current forecasts lead us to believe weakness will prevail.
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