Price action: November soybeans dropped 29 1/4 cents to $12.65 and nearer the session low. August soybean meal fell $6.30 to $393.70 and nearer the session low. August bean oil closed lost 123 points at 57.67 cents, nearer the session low after hitting a 3.5-month high early on today.
Fundamental analysis: The flush in the grain and soybean complex futures markets continued at mid-week, with weak long liquidation featured amid weather forecasts that have added better precipitation chances for the Midwest over the next two weeks. World Weather Inc. today reported rain through the weekend across the U.S. Midwest will be restricted, but some increase is expected next week that may bring at least some relief most of the region. “Today’s forecasts may be a little too wet, but some relief is anticipated to the most stressful conditions that have occurred recently,” said the forecaster.
Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. soybean sales of 200,000 to 500,000 MT in the 2022-23 marketing year and sales of zero to 200,000 MT in the 2023-24 marketing year.
Traders are eagerly awaiting Friday morning’s quarterly grain stocks and updated planted acres reports. These reports have a history of producing surprises and higher price volatility in their immediate aftermath.
Technical analysis: November soybeans have seen a bearish V-Top reversal pattern form and play out on the daily bar chart. The bean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field but the bears have momentum on their side. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the June high of $13.78. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $12.00. First resistance is seen at $13.00 and then at $13.25. First support is seen at $12.50 and then at $12.25.
The soybean meal bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in August futures above solid technical resistance at $420.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the May low of $381.80. First resistance comes in at $400.00 and then at $405.50. First support is seen at $385.00 and then at $381.80.
Soybean oil futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but faded today. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing August prices above solid technical resistance at 62.50 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 52.08 cents. First resistance is seen at 59.39 cents and then at today’s high of 60.20 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 56.24 cents and then at 55.00 cents.
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