USDA forecasts all food prices will increase 5.8% this year, within a range of 5.5% to 6.1%. Food-at-home (grocery) prices are predicted to increase 5.1% (range of 4.5% to 5.5%). Food-away-from-home (restaurant) prices are predicted to increase 7.1% (range of 6.9% to 7.3%). While the predicted ranges changed slightly, the average increases were unchanged from USDA’s outlook last month.
In 2024, all food prices are forecast to increase 2.1%, with USDA using a range of -2.1% to 6.7%, down slightly from last month’s 2.2% expected rise. Food-at-home prices are predicted to increase 1.0%, (range of -5.5% to 7.8%), down from 1.6% previously. Food-away-from-home prices are predicted to increase 4.4% (range of 2.2% to 6.7%), up from 2.3% last month.
Of note: External factors, including Federal Reserve monetary policy and geopolitical tensions such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine, could affect these forecasts. High energy prices may particularly impact restaurant food price inflation. While consumers are expected to experience lower increases in 2023 compared to previous years, the forecasts still exceed the 10-year averages for all food, restaurant and grocery prices. For 2024, the current outlook suggests all food and grocery prices will be below their 20-year averages, while restaurant prices are expected to remain above that level.
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