USDA raised its 2024 beef production forecast 139 million lbs. from last month on expectations of higher slaughter during the second half of the year and heavier carcass weights. Beef production is still expected to decline 1.4% from last year. USDA raised its 2024 beef export forecast 13 million lbs. from last month, though shipments are expected to decline 7.2% from year-ago. USDA lowered its 2024 average cash steer price to $183.51, down $1.50 from last month but that would still be up $7.97 from last year.
For 2025, USDA projects beef production will decline another 5.5% as tighter cattle supplies and
increased heifer and cow retention are expected to result in lower slaughter of both fed and non-fed cattle. With the reduced supplies, beef exports are expected to fall another 11.3%. USDA projects the average cash steer price will rise to $188.00 next year.
USDA lowered its 2024 pork production forecast 26 million lbs. from last month, though output is still expected rise 2.8% from last year. The 2024 pork export forecast was lowered based on slower-than-expected demand growth in several key markets. Pork exports are still forecast to increase 6.5% from last year. USDA lowered its 2024 average cash hog price by 50 cents from last month to $62.49, though that would still be up $3.90 from last year.
For 2025, USDA projects pork production will rise another 1.2%, as growth in pigs per litter will more than offset fewer expected farrowings. Pork exports are forecast to increase another 4.9% on improved price competitiveness and increased demand in several key markets. USDA projects the average cash hog price will decline to $60.00 in 2025.
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