The GOP holds a majority of 217-213 in the House, exacerbated by the swearing-in of Democrat Tim Kennedy (D-N.Y.). That leaves Republican leaders with minimal room for defections on party-line votes. This close margin is the tightest in the 118th Congress thus far.
Looking ahead, three special elections are scheduled in districts that traditionally lean Republican, potentially expanding the GOP’s majority:
- California’s 20th District: This election is to fill the vacancy left by former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. The candidates are Vince Fong, a state assemblyman and former McCarthy aide, and Mike Boudreaux, a county sheriff. Both are also contenders in the general election scheduled for Nov. 5.
- Ohio’s 6th District: Voters are likely to replace former Rep. Bill Johnson with state Sen. Michael Rulli, who is also running in the fall election.
- Colorado’s 4th District: The seat vacated by former Rep. Ken Buck is likely to go to Greg Lopez, a former mayor. Although Lopez is not pursuing a full two-year term, he is expected to win the special election. Meanwhile, Rep. Lauren Boebert is vying for the Republican nomination for this district in the regular primary.
Bottom line: These elections could potentially increase the Republican tally to 220 seats, assuming no further changes occur. This situation could provide some much-needed flexibility for the Republican leadership in managing party-line votes and advancing their legislative agenda.
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