La Niña Weakening Trend has Begun, Will Accelerate
La Niña is in its 29th month of existence but it should be in decline, according to World Weather Inc., who says its influence on the world will be greatly diminished in January and February depending on its rate of decline. The weather forecaster says its confidence is “high” La Niña will diminish in the first quarter of 2023 and will lose much of its influence on world weather by February – if forecast models are correct.
The weakening La Niña should help reduce rain intensity from center west to center south and northeastern Brazil during the early soybean harvest and sufficient rain should fall to support favorable safrinha corn planting conditions. In Argentina, there will be potential for improved rainfall during January and February. World Weather says, “Production of summer crops in Argentina will still be down, but there could be some good improvement for late-season crops (especially double-cropped soybeans) if La Niña weakens quick enough to bring rain early in January or possibly late this month.”
For the U.S., World Weather says: “January and especially February and March weather will bring some bouts of rain to the central and southern Plains and western Corn Belt as well as the Delta and areas northeast to the middle and northern Atlantic Coast region... The heart of spring is expected to have less than usual precipitation in the Midwest, Delta and immediate neighboring areas... The early arrival of moisture in the central Plains should give poorly established wheat a good chance to become better established with new root and tiller development prior to aggressive growth in the spring. The new tillers will help restore production potentials, despite the poor autumn and early winter weather.”
