Price action: November soybeans rose 7 1/4 cents to $13.78, the highest close since Feb. 23. August soymeal rallied $10.6 to $434.4. August soyoil fell 29 points before settling at 62.57 cents. Unlock daily market recaps and analysis from Pro Farmer - start a $1 trial subscription.
Fundamental analysis: November soybean futures continue to climb higher but were unable to maintain last night’s gap higher caused by increased geopolitical risk around the Black Sea. Strength in corn and wheat following Russia’s formal notification to Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations that they would suspend their participation in the Black Sea grain deal until the agreement surround Russian agricultural exports is fulfilled.
The National Oilseed Processors Association released the June soybean crush total this morning at 165.023 million bushels. This came in well below expectations of analyst’s expectations of 170.568 million bushels from a Reuters survey. Soyoil stocks came in well below expectations of 1.816 billion pounds to 1.69 billion pounds, a seven-month low. While this month missed expectations, the recent crush pace still exceeds that needed to reach the current USDA estimate and today’s miss should not have any negative impact on next month’s Supply and Demand report. While crush was more bearish for soybeans, meal rallied after the report due to implied tightness in the soymeal balance sheet from decreased production.
Rain fell throughout portions of the Corn Belt over the weekend, with portions of central into southern Iowa and nearby Missouri receiving rains up to three quarters of an inch. Weather conditions are forecast to remain favorable for the southern two thirds of the Corn Belt for the next couple weeks with mild temperatures and daily rounds of precip. Concern lies in early August as current precipitation prospects are not enough to wain production prospects for the soybean crop, World Weather Inc says.
USDA reported export inspections of 155,556 (5.7 million bu.), which were down 145,209 MT from the previous week and near the low end of the pre-report range from 175,000 to 400,000 MT.
Crop progress is released this afternoon with analyst’s seeing soybean crop conditions rising two percentage points to 53% “good” to “excellent” according to a Reuters survey. This would still be the lowest rating since 2012.
Technical analysis: November soybeans managed to close higher but were well off intraday highs. Bulls continue to struggle against resistance stemming from $13.80, closely backed by the key $14.00 level. Additional resistance comes in at the December 30 high of $14.27 3/4. Bulls are still in control of the technical advantage as prices closed at the highest level since February. Bears are looking to take out today’s low of $13.69, then $13.60 before targeting stiffer support at last week’s low at $13.17 3/4.
August soymeal charged higher today, closing at the highest level since the June explosion higher. Bulls are targeting the June 21 high of $438.90, backed by $450.00. A close above that level would open the door to test the contract high of $472.10 made in early March. Bears are targeting initial support at $422.00 before firm support at $416.00, loss of which will likely test the uptrend line stemming from the June 14 low, currently at $409.00.
August soybean oil fell sharply, though price remained in Friday’s range. Bulls are still in firm control of the technical advantage as they are targeting Friday’s move-high of 66.62 cents before additional resistance at 68.5 cents. A reversal would encounter support at the 10-day moving average at 63.72 cents, backed by the 20-day moving average at 61.28 cents.
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