The condition of Russian winter crops may not be as bad as data suggests as those figures do not adjust for the fact that many plants sprout later due to climate change, leading Russian agriculture analysts said. Data from the state weather forecasting agency last week indicated that over 37% of winter crops are in poor condition or have not sprouted due to low moisture levels.
“Crops in parts of the South were still vegetating in late November this year, something that was not typical a decade ago. This may not have been fully captured in the agency’s assessment,” SovEcon said. However, SovEcon said it was likely to slightly downgrade its 2025 wheat production forecast of 81.6 MMT.
The head of IKAR consultancy, Dmitry Rylko, said crops in an early sprouting stage with one leaf per sprout in November were classified as being in a “poor state” by the state weather agency, while they had a good chance of surviving the winter. “Farmers like this stage of crop development, as it is quite conducive to overwintering. However, the weather forecasting agency classifies such crops as ‘in poor condition,’” Rylko said. According to IKAR’s data, nearly all winter crops in the European part of Russia were in the one-leaf sprouting stage.
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