Black Sea ag markets research firm SovEcon reduced its Ukraine grain production forecasts based on the Russian invasion and weather conditions. For wheat, the firm cut planted area by 200,000 hectares from last year to 6.9 million hectares. Farmers planted 6.7 million hectares of winter wheat last fall. SovEcon expects wheat yields to fall well below trendline to 3.8 metric tons (MT) per hectare. Total wheat production is forecast at 26.0 MMT, down from its previous forecast of 28.3 MMT and well below last year’s 32.1 MMT crop.
For corn, planted area is expected to drop 900,000 hectares from last year to 4.6 million hectares and yields are anticipated to fall by 1.5 MT per hectare from last year to 6.1 MT per hectare. SovEcon forecasts total corn production at 27.7 MMT, down sharply from 41.9 MMT last year.
The forecasts assume the majority of Ukrainian farmers will be able to carry out fieldwork in April and Ukraine and Russia will reach a ceasefire agreement in the next several weeks.
