Price action: July soybeans fell 18 3/4 cents to $13.22 1/2, ending nearer the session low, while July meal fell $5.80 to $406.40. July soyoil ended 101 points lower at 47.76 cents.
Fundamental analysis: The soy complex was the clear underdog today, after having made the largest gain since September in the previous session. However, losses were likely limited by strength in grains. Increasing logistical and global supply concerns around Black Sea exports following last week’s two-month extension were the catalyst that spurred buying activity in grains. Though a stronger U.S. dollar, which reached a two-month high overnight, likely limited upside momentum.
Planting continues to advance at a record pace of 66%, according to the USDA’s Monday afternoon Crop Progress report, which was up from 49% the previous week and the five-year average of 52%. Of the top 13 soybean producing states, only Minnesota (53% vs. 57% average) and North Dakota (20% vs. 33%) were behind. Planting should continue to progress quickly, as World Weather Inc. notes the U.S. Midwest will be dry and warm over the next week to ten days, allowing for rapid planting, quick seed germination and good crop emergence conditions.
Technical Analysis: Soybeans remained under pressure throughout the session but were able to hold above initial support at $13.15 3/4. A breach of the level, however, will find bears then targeting last Friday’s low of $13.04 3/4, then $12.90 1/2 and $12.76 1/4. Conversely, upward momentum will continue to find initial resistance at $13.55 1/4, then at $13.69 1/2 and the 20-day moving average of $13.90. Success above these levels will need to hurdle the $14.00 area to then work toward the 40-day moving average of $14.27 1/2 and the technically significant 100-day moving average of $14.68 3/4.
July meal continues to lose steam and reached the lowest level since late November in today’s session. Bears were able to capture a close below initial support of $407.50 and are now poised to work toward the next area of support at $402.80 and $398.10. On the contrary, a turn higher will find solid resistance at $416.90, then at the 10- and 20-day moving averages of $420.90 and $423.90, respectively. A turn above these levels will likely see little resistance before the 40-day moving average of $438.20.
July soyoil was able to breach the 10-day moving average of 48.74 cents early in the session but posted a low-range close above initial support of 47.25 cents. A turn below the level will find additional support at 45.74 and 44.82 cents. A turn higher will continue to face support at the 10-day moving average, then at 49.68 cents, 52.11 cents and then the 40-day moving average of 52.64 cents.
What to do: market advice is available to subscribers only - start a Pro Farmer subscription here
Hedgers: market advice is available to subscribers only - start a Pro Farmer subscription here
Cash-only marketers: market advice is available to subscribers only - start a Pro Farmer subscription here
