Price action: January soybeans rose 8 3/4 cents to $14.38 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents on the week. January soymeal rose $2.50 to $424.10, up $17.80 for the week and the contract’s highest close since Sept. 21. January soyoil fell 216 points to 65.22 cents, down 649 points for the week and the lowest since Oct. 17.
5-day outlook: Soybeans climbed on corrective buying following sharp losses Thursday, with strength in soymeal, strong demand and a tight supply outlook continuing to underpin prices and encouraging buying on price weakness. The market may be poised for sideways trade over the next week as traders wait for USDA’s monthly Supply and Demand update Dec. 9. The report is likely to show only minor changes. South American weather will be closely followed, with dryness in Argentina becoming concerning but potential for moisture relief around the middle of December. Continued weakness in soyoil and other vegoil prices could limit buying interest.
30-day outlook: Persistent dryness in Argentina has already prompted some analysts to reduce their outlooks for the country’s crops and may remain price-supportive. Earlier this week, Crop Consultant Michael Cordonnier lowered his forecast for Argentina’s 2023 soybean production by 1 MMT to 49 MMT, citing “problematic” weather. Earlier in November, USDA cut its forecast 1.5 MMT to 49.5 MMT. Little rain and hot temperatures are expected in Argentina through the next week, stressing crops in central and northern parts of the country, World Weather Inc. said today. Dec. 11-16 “should not be as stressful” as temperatures may be cooler and rain should fall on much of the country, the forecaster said, “But much of the rain may be light and additional rain will be needed soon.” Brazil’s conditions are more favorable for crop development.
90-day outlook: January futures’ sharp selloff Thursday could be a signal the market established a near-term top and may trade sideways into 2023, but strong crush demand and a tight supply outlook for should limit price downside. U.S. soybean exports have shown signs of slowing, and fresh impending South American supplies could limit rally attempts. USDA on Thursday reported net weekly U.S. soybean sales of 693,800 MT, up from 690,100 MT the previous week but at the lower end of expectations ranging from 550,000 MT to 1.0 MT. U.S. export commitments are running 0.4% ahead of a year-ago, down 1.4% ahead last week. USDA projected 2022-23 exports at 2.045 billion bu., down 5.2% from the previous marketing year.
