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Price action: March soybeans fell 14 cents to $12.98 and gave up 8 1/4 cents on the week. March soymeal fell $4.70 to $386.00 and lost $5.10 week-over-week. March soyoil rose 20 points to 48.18 cents but is down 84 points from a week ago. Year-over-year, March soybeans are down 7%.
5-day outlook: Soybean futures ended the week on a bitter note, marking a two and a half month low amid improving forecasts in Brazil. Moreover, markets are broadly ending the 2023 calendar year in a risk-off tone, given the recent escalation of the Russia/Ukraine conflict and rising tensions in the Middle East. However, following the New Year holiday, traders will continue to focus on South American weather. Most medium range forecast models have suggested above normal rainfall may evolve in northeastern Brazil during the first week of January while center west Brazil experiences a boost in rainfall.
30-day outlook: USDA’s final 2023-24 production data, along with global production updates, due out Jan. 12 will provide direction for market participants. Earlier this week, South American crop consultant, Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his Brazilian soybean production estimate by 2.0 MMT to 153.0 MMT and noted a neutral/lower bias going forward. Changes to use will also be of note amid record crush levels.
90-day outlook: U.S. soybean exports will continue to be a market focus into the 2024 calendar year. Earlier this morning, USDA reported 983,900 MT of net soybean sales during week ended Dec. 21, which were down 51% from the previous week and 38% from the four-week average. Top purchasers for the week included China, the Netherlands and Indonesia. Meanwhile, exports during the week totaled 1.216 MMT, which fell 9% from the previous week and 6% from the four-week average. Top destinations included China, Japan and Mexico.
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