Price action: May soybeans rose 10 1/2 cents to $11.51 1/4 and gained 9 1/2 cents on the week to notch the first weekly gain since the week of Dec. 11. May soymeal rose $3.10 to $332.30, and picked up $4.30 week-over-week, while May soyoil fell 5 points to 45.16 cents, but rose 56 points on the week.
5-day outlook: Soybean futures spent the week consolidating sideways in narrow trade, with a fresh for-the-move low forged in the previous session. As has been the case over the past two-and-a-half months, overhead technical pressure combined with tepid export demand continues to keep upward price movement to a minimum. Moreover, notable selling in soymeal futures has certainly been a driver for soybeans since early November, with May meal down over $90 from the Nov. 8 high, while nearby soybeans have given up more than $2.60 since Nov. 15. The month of February alone saw soybeans plunge nearly 70 cents, ultimately carving a spring crop insurance price of $11.55, which is a $2.21 (16.1%) drop from last year and the lowest since 2021.
Trade next week could prove noteworthy as this week’s consolidative price action suggests a larger move is imminent. Technical buying could certainly ensue next week, though efforts could be denied by resumed selling in meal futures, which have entered near-term overbought territory despite having carved a 28-month low on the continuation chart this week. Furthermore, soybeans could see increased selling efforts from managed money, which were reported at a net short of 188,294 contracts last Friday, a 247-week high, compared to a net short of 340,732 contracts in corn. Fresh CFTC data will be reported following today’s close, which will likely provide insight into next week’s trade.
30-day outlook: USDA’s Prospective Planting Report, due out March 28 this year amid an early Easter and Good Friday holiday. The report will feature results from a National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) survey of 6,000 producers across the U.S., which was sent out Feb. 20., with responses expected by Feb. 28. NASS indicates producers who do not respond by the Feb. 28 date may be contacted for an interview. That noted, any last-minute-acre-buying efforts that occur during the month of March will likely not be reflected in the Prospective Planting Report. USDA will also update Grain Stocks at the end of the month, which could expand or negate price action from USDA’s acreage projections.
90-day outlook: U.S. exports and crush activity will maintain a longer-term market focus, especially as traders gain a better handle of the size of the South American crop. U.S. export business has certainly tailed off, though a hitch in Brazilian production could ripen prospects for U.S. export business in the coming months. However, a robust Argentine crop could help offset any losses in Brazil. In the past year, U.S. crush has amped up due to a surge in soyoil demand amid rising biodiesel production combined with a lackluster crop in Argentina last year due to historic drought. As Argentina’s harvest approaches, traders will have an increasing focus on U.S. crush activity and soymeal export, though weather in March will be crucial as it is the main month for soybean pod filling in the country, with harvest beginning for early maturing varieties.
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