Price action: May soybeans rose 2 1/2 cents to $14.93 3/4, nearer the session high after hitting a two-week low early on. May soybean meal gained $1.90 at $481.20 and near the session high. May bean oil rose 32 points to 56.18 cents and closed near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: Soybean complex futures saw some mild support today from decent gains in corn and wheat futures prices. However, gains were limited by risk appetite in the marketplace that is still somewhat squelched as the U.S. banking turmoil continues to have some market reverberations.
The marketplace was somewhat assuaged today by as-expected readings on the U.S. consumer price index report for February. That report not being hotter than expected may continue to calm trader and investor concerns over the banking turmoil and allow some risk appetite to continue to creep back into the grain markets on Wednesday.
World Weather Inc. today reported “crop issues in Argentina and Brazil are unlikely to change enough in the next two weeks to seriously impact the bottom line to this year’s production, which may continue a mixed influence on market mentality.” Harvest and planting delays will continue in Brazil even though some lighter and less frequent rain will impact areas from Parana to southern Minas Gerais for a while, said the forecaster. Argentina’s drought will not likely be seriously changed in the coming week, despite some showers.
Technical analysis: The soybean futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, strong resistance layers above the market have once again stalled the uptrend. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing May prices above solid resistance at the February high of $15.49 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $14.77 3/4. First resistance is seen at $15.00 and then at this week’s high of $15.16 1/2. First support is seen at today’s low of $14.84 and then at $14.77 3/4.
The soybean meal futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A 4.5-month-old price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in May futures above solid technical resistance at $500.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of $465.80. First resistance comes in at this week’s high of $490.00 and then at the contract high of $498.00. First support is seen at $476.00 and then at today’s low of $472.20.
Soybean oil futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing May prices above solid technical resistance at 60.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 53.92 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 57.24 cents and then at 58.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 55.36 cents and then at 53.92 cents.
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