Price action: July soybeans rose 18 3/4 cents to $14.36 1/2, the highest close since April 21 and gained 17 1/4 cents on the week. July meal rose $1.50 to $426.10 but fell $6.30 week-over-week. July soyoil rose 185 points to 54.33 cents, gaining 266-points from a week ago.
5-day outlook: Soybean futures rose for the third straight session, ending the week on a high note after experiencing notable selling efforts since around mid-April. A solid rebound in crude oil futures and slightly weaker U.S. dollar dealt the complex a solid hand to march higher. The outside markets were driven by the Labor Department’s stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data for April increased trade confidence in the health of the economy with the addition of 253,000 new jobs during the month, which largely exceeded pre-report forecasts of around 180,000 new jobs. Though the report has raised concerns of additional rate increases by the Fed in its ongoing battle against inflation. After a period of risk-off trade, traders will continue to focus on economic data and likely trade cautiously near-term until a firm grasp can be made on the future of the U.S. and global economy.
30-day outlook: USDA will provide its initial updates U.S. production in its May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. While changes are likely to be minimal, traders will surely to be tuned in to the government’s estimates. Of greater significance will be the June 30 Acreage and Quarterly Stocks reports. Weather, the greatest contributing factor to acreage and yields, will be closely monitored until the reports are released.
While mother nature has provided conditions for a record U.S. planting pace thus far, World Weather Inc. notes planting delays are of concern in the northeastern Plains and upper Midwest, where fieldwork has been limited by cool, moist conditions this spring. The forecaster also notes River flooding will continue along the upper half of the Mississippi and Red River Basin of the north, with the process continuing through much of this month.
90-day outlook: U.S. export sales and shipments will continue to be a long-term trade focus, as it provides a look into the global economy. Weather will also be crucial as soybeans enter the most important stage of their growth cycle, which could largely affect yields given a hot, dry scenario.
As Brazil harvest winds down, importing countries continue to look at fresh supplies to fulfill their needs. Consequently, U.S. export sales have faded over the last month. On Thursday, USDA reported net sales of 289,700 MT for week ended April 27, which were down 7% from the previous week, but up 78% from the four-week average. China was the main purchaser, along with Germany and the Netherlands. Shipments for the week totaled 561,200 MT, which rose 24% from the previous week and 12% from the four-week average, with the largest portion (190,800 MT) destined for China.
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