Price action: November soybeans rose 3 1/2 cents to $13.63 but gave up 6 1/4 cents on the week. Meanwhile, December meal futures closed $6.10 higher at $401.40, gaining $1.80 week-over-week. December soyoil fell 28 points to 60.50 cents and lost 279 points on the week.
5-day outlook: Soybeans took mild strength from meal gains, remaining subdued before USDA’s release of fresh supply and demand data next week. August weather woes have reduced production expectations, with analysts anticipating an average yield of 50.2 bu. per acre, compared to 50.9 bu. per acre reported in August. A slight month-over-month increase in harvested acres to 82.84 million acres puts average expected production at 4.157 billion bu., up from 4.205 billion last month. Meanwhile, domestic ending stocks are expected on average at 255 million bu., down marginally from 260 million bu. in August. Ending stocks for 2023-24 are expected to fall to 207 million bu., from 245 million bu. projected in August. Traders will likely continue to position ahead of USDA’s updated figures, due out next Tuesday at 12 pm E.T.
30-day outlook: South American weather will start to become increasingly important as planting efforts begin to gather steam in Brazil. Rains have been frequent in Paraguay and southern Brazil, though World Weather Inc. indicates rain rains will become less frequent and lighter Sept. 15-22, but showers will occur Sept. 18-22. Meanwhile, rains are expected to be restricted through much of the next two weeks in central and northern Brazil where fieldwork should advance well and will need greater rain to improve conditions for planting and establishment of summer crops.
90-day outlook: A longer-term trade focus will continue to revolve around U.S. exports amid recent lackluster economic data from top importer China, which has consistently looked to South American supplies to fulfill its supply needs as of late. The start of a fresh marketing year will find traders tuning in to USDA’s weekly export data to gain insight into how demand will progress through the year. Earlier today, for week ended Aug. 31, USDA reported net sales of 1.783 MMT for 203-24, which were near the top-end of the pre-report range of 1.4 to 2.0 MMT. Top purchasers for the week included 863,900 MT to unknown destinations and 735,200 MT to China. While Soybean sales to date for 2023-24 total 15.941 MMT, compared to a 24.391 MMT during the same period a year ago.
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