Price action: January soybeans fell 9 1/2 cents to $14.40 1/2, at the lower end of today’s range. December soymeal fell $1.40 to $406.00. December soyoil fell 69 points to 76.28 cents.
Fundamental analysis: The soy complex posted broad declines amid pressure from weakness in global vegoils, concerns over Chinese demand and a mostly favorable crop outlook in South America. Malaysian palm oil futures fell 4.1% on a stronger ringgit and weakness in competing vegetable oils, while front-month crude oil was down nearly $3 in late trade. Widespread rain fell over the weekend in Argentina, improving conditions for planting and establishment of summer crops, World Weather Inc. said. Over 5.0 inches of rain fell just south of west-central Cordoba, while most other areas received 0.20 to 1.50 inches. Brazil and Paraguay also had widespread, beneficial rain over the weekend, with heavy amounts from central and southern Paraguay to southern parts of Brazil’s Mato Grosso do Sul, western and southern Parana, and northwestern Rio Grande do Sul.
USDA reported weekly soybean inspections of 1.858 MMT (68.3 million bu.), down from 2.606 MMT the previous week and 2.434 MMT last year. Soybean export inspections so far in 2022-23 are running 11.6% behind a year ago, compared to 9.7% behind last week. USDA will update harvest progress later today. Analysts expect the crop to be 97% harvested as of Sunday, up from 94% the previous week.
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Technical analysis: Soybean and soymeal technicals retain a neutral-to-lower bias after last week’s soft performance carried into the start of this week. January soybeans closed under the 10- and 100-day moving averages at $14.46 1/4 and $14.47, respectively, and are nearly 30 cents under key resistance at last week’s high of $14.69. But the market is well-supported around last week’s low of $14.20 1/2, which is backed by the 50-day moving average at $14.19 3/4 and the 100-day and 40-day moving averages at $14.13 1/2 to $14.14 1/4, respectively. A break under those levels, followed by further support at $14.00. may have bears targeting the October low at $13.62 1/2.
Soyoil retains a bullish bias, with prices in an up-trend for the past six weeks. Key resistance includes last week’s four-month high at 78.64 cents and the contract high at 79.29 cents, posted June 8.
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