Price action: November soybeans fell 22 cents to $13.98, ending the session below the 10-day moving average and near the session low. August meal fell 20 cents to $464.50. August soyoil fell 166 points to 68.61 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybean futures spent the overnight working toward Monday’s high, though bulls were ultimately thwarted despite a second straight day of daily export sales and rise in weekly sales. Notable strength in the U.S. dollar cast a general negative tone across commodities, while crude oil gains likely offset some of the greenback’s pressure.
This morning, USDA reported daily export sales of 256,000 MT to unknown destinations for 2023-24. This follows two sales Wednesday which totaled 501,000 MT for delivery to unknown destinations in 2023-24. USDA also reported weekly export sales data earlier today, which showed net sales of 198,500 MT in week ended July 20, which were up notably from the previous week and 73% from the four-week average. Net sales of 544,600 MT were reported for 2023-24. Traders expected sales to range from 50,000 to 400,000 MT for 2022-23 and 300,000 to 800,000 MT for 2023-24.
Traders continue to focus on weather as August approaches. World Weather Inc. said conditions in the first week of the outlook will be most stressful for crops in the southwestern part of the Midwest where weather is hottest. This will also be where some of the driest weather occurs, at least through the end of this week before the potential for thunderstorm complexes increase. The heat and humidity will be of particular concern in eastern Kansas, Missouri, southern Iowa and western Illinois. Northwesterly flow aloft will support thunderstorm complexes to move through next week and the rain will offer some relief from dryness. Cooler temps will also move in next week which will help with relief.
Technical analysis: November soybeans gave up some technical traction with a close held below support at $14.08 3/4, the 10-day moving average of $14.02 1/4 and psychological support at $14.00. Extended momentum to the downside will face additional support around $13.88, then at the 20-, 200-, 40- and 100-day moving averages of $13.70, $13.34, $13.10 1/4 and $12.91 3/4, respectively. Conversely, a move higher will continue to face resistance at $14.29 1/2, again at $14.39 1/4 and $14.50 1/4.
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