Price action: March soybeans fell 9 3/4 cents to $10.55 3/4, but still gained 21 3/4 cents on the week. March soymeal edged $10.40 lower to $304.90 and still managed to notch a $7.70 weekly gain. March soyoil rose 18 points to 45.22 cents but gave up 47 points on the week.
5-day outlook: Looming technical resistance combined with a corrective pullback in soymeal futures were the culprits of today’s weakness in soybean futures, though a plunging U.S. dollar to a more than one-month low was certainly a supporting factor. Also casting a shadow was Argentina’s decision to reduce ag export taxes through June, though some sources have noted the move is more of a boost for farmers than exporters.
The 200-day moving average in nearby soybean futures has served up strong resistance over the past year, with Thursday’s test only the second occurrence in the past year, making today’s weakness not all that surprising. However, selling was limited to the 10-day moving average, indicating bulls may have more in the tank in the coming days, though an extension lower in soymeal futures could kibosh those efforts. Moreover, any definitive trade decisions by the incoming administration over the next week could also spur a greater risk-off tone, though President Trump has seemingly eased up against China in recent comments, which is advantageous for an extended bull move.
30-day outlook: The marketplace is seemingly holding its breath as safrinha corn plantings in Brazil continue to gain increasing attention due to a delayed soybean harvest in much of the country. However, soybean quality concerns are becoming more of a focus amid persisting rains. Meanwhile, Argentine weather continues to prove subpar for growing crops, with South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier indicating roughly 60% of the country’s soybean crop has been impacted to some degree. Nonetheless, Cordonnier anticipates South America will have record soybean output between Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Bolivia and Uruguay, which if realized, will keep a lid on the soybean market barring U.S. weather hiccups as the spring planting season inches closer.
90-day outlook: The current corn-to-soybean ratio continues to favor more robust U.S. corn acres this year, though recent gains in soybean futures could have some producers on the fence. Generally eroding working capital and rather stable input prices are compounding factors that could affect final plantings, in addition to mother nature, of course. Additionally, greater-than-expected quality and crop issues in South America could alter the market dynamic, especially if President Trump is able to achieve a more positive trade relationship with China and other importing countries. USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report, due out March 31, will coincide with the release of Quarterly Grain Stocks, and give an initial look into 2025-26 crops, and further insight into Use.
What to do: Market advice and recommendations are available to Pro Farmer subscribers only. Sign up for 50% off.
Hedgers: Market advice and recommendations are available to Pro Farmer subscribers only. Sign up for 50% off.
Cash-only marketers: Market advice and recommendations are available to Pro Farmer subscribers only. Sign up for 50% off.
