Price action: May soybeans rallied 16 1/4 cents to $11.50 1/2 at Friday’s close, but still lost 23 1/2 cents on the week. May soymeal firmed $5.70 to $343.70, but still lost 70 cents week-over-week. May soyoil rose 26 points to 44.38 cents but gave up 151 points from a week ago.
5-day outlook: Short-covering was the theme across the soy complex to end the week after facing notable selling efforts through most of the week. A slightly weaker U.S. dollar offered some support, as did a daily export flash from USDA, which showed sales of 121,500 MT to unknown destinations. Of the total, 13,500 MT were for 2023-24 and 108,000 MT for 2024-25. Moreover, rising geopolitical tensions involving Israel and Iran spurred corrective buying as traders look to hard assets as a safe haven, while a turn to a wetter weather pattern in the U.S. could steepen buying into next week. Traders will continue to closely monitor both over the weekend, with any geopolitical escalation heightening the odds of volatility to begin next week’s trade.
30-day outlook: While it’s still early in the planting season, traders will continue to closely monitor planting efforts across the U.S. and watch for any major weather hiccups which could impede progress. USDA reported earlier this week, soybean plantings were 3% complete as of April 7, slightly ahead of the five-year average. However, forecasts of wetter weather throughout the Midwest beginning next week through May 2 could cause producers to put the brakes on planting. World Weather Inc. notes a close watch will be made on the period as there is some potential for bands of heavy rain Thursday into the following weekend, with follow-up rain expected to cause delays to fieldwork, which could be extended deeper into May.
90-day outlook: The longer-term market focus continues revolve around U.S. export sales, which have struggled throughout the marketing-year as a partial result of a persistently strong U.S. dollar as well as robust Brazilian supplies. Helping offset a portion of the year-over-year decline in exports has been solid U.S. crush, which has notched records over the past several months. Earlier in the week, the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported March crush among its members reached an all-time high, at 196.406 million bu., though the data moved the market minimally as it largely proved neutral against expectations. In addition to exports, U.S. crush activity will continue to be examined closely, especially as top soymeal exporter, Argentina, reaps fresh supplies to process.
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